Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 271729
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1129 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

MID LEVEL DRYING IS WORKING WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST CO AROUND THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW. BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND CO/NM BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE
SE MTS...THEN DISSIPATE AS DEEPER DRIER AIR WORKS. STILL LIKELY
TO SEE SOME HEALTHY SNOWFALL RATES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...SO WILL HANG ON TO CURRENT
SET OF ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS. I-25 CORRIDOR LOOKS MAINLY WET IN
VARIOUS WEB CAMS...BUT SINCE ZONES EXTEND TO THE WEST OF I-25
WHERE SNOW IS STILL FALLING...WILL KEEP ADVISORIES GOING FOR
HUERFANO AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES. LA VETA WEB CAM APPEARS
TO BE GETTING SOME HEAVY SNOW RIGHT NOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE 18Z
EXPIRATION WILL WORK OUT FAIRLY WELL.  -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

...SPRING STORM WINDING DOWN...

CURRENTLY...

QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION AT 3 AM THIS MORNING.
MOST SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WAS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE S MTNS
AND DOWN ALONG THE RATON MESA REGION...HOWEVER SHOWERS WERE NOTED
OVER SW KS AND THEY WERE MOVING ONTO THE FAR SE PLAIN OF COLO. SNOW
LEVELS HAVE LOWERED OVER THE S MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE PER SPOTTER
REPORTS FROM RYE AND BEULAH. QUITE A BIT OF LIQUID HAS FALLEN WITH
THIS STORM WITH 1.5-3.0" REPORTS COMMON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S
MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE.

TODAY...

LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS SNOWS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND S MTNS.
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE ACROSS KIOWA COUNTY LATER THIS MORNING AND
HIS DRYING WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS WEST-SW`WD DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. PRECIP SHOULD END ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION BY LATE MORNING AND ACROSS THE SPANISH PEAKS REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT WINTER WX HI-LITES "AS IS" FOR NOW...BUT
WILL LIKELY MAKE NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS LATER THIS MORNING TOWARDS
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION. AS FOR THE S MTNS
FARTHER SOUTH (WETS/SANGRES)...SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF WET SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE A COOL DAY TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS ON THE
PLAINS RUNNING A GOOD 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. /HODANISH

TONIGHT...

WEAK TROUGHINESS WILL BE OVER THE REGION AS MAIN LOW MOVES OFF TO
OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD...THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...IT WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH SOME AREAS ON THE
PLAINS TOUCHING THE FREEZING MARK...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PALMER
DVD AND RATON MESA AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH ENSEMBLE SPREADS BECOMING LESS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FROM MOVING
MUCH...KEEPING THE PLAINS DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WITH 60S FOR
HIGHS ON TUESDAY...AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTEN ACROSS
COLORADO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO
PASS TO THE NORTH...WITH WEAKER ENERGY MOVING ACROSS COLORADO.
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE WEAK ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION THE FLOW TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASED
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP MOVE STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AND PUSH THEM EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
SEE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ACROSS THE REGION WITH 70S AND 80S
FOR HIGHS.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES WITH
SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS CIGS RISE INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD STAY PINNED UP CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS WHERE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR TO LIFR. GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS BECOME MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. KALS WILL SEE PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AFTER SOME EVENING BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER...VFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP OVER KCOS AND KPUB OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL BREAK EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ076-078-081-
087-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ072>075-079-080-
082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT


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