Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KPUB 272045
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
245 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015

SHOWERS ARE WINDING DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN CO AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST INTO TX/OK.  STILL ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE HAS BEEN LESS WIDESPREAD THAN EARLIER
MODEL RUNS HAD SUGGESTED.  WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY SCATTERED POPS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...THEN TAIL THEM DOWN FROM
EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE EVENING.  SOME RESIDUAL ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MAY HELP KEEP SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS GOING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN SPOTTY AND LIGHT.  MEANWHILE...LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS STARTING TO ERODE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...THOUGH THEY REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  WITH
TIME...THESE SHOULD START TO BREAK INTO THE EVENING...BUT
MODELS...ESP 12Z NAM...SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL DECK WILL REFORM
OVERNIGHT.  THIS MAY HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING
FOR NORMAL COLD POCKETS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND RATON RIDGE MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH CLEARING TOWARDS MORNING TO SEE
TEMPERATURES HIT THE FREEZING MARK...AND THERE IS LOW GRADE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
OFFICIAL START TO THE GROWING SEASON IS MAY 1ST...AND WITH THIS
LOOKING LIKE A MARGINAL EVENT...WILL NOT HOIST ANY FROST ADVISORIES.
BUT THOSE WITH TENDER VEGETATION OUTSIDE MAY WANT TO ERR ON THE SIDE
OF CAUTION TONIGHT AND COVER OR BRING THEM INDOORS.

TUESDAY LOOKS DRIER FOR SOUTHERN CO.  THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  THESE WILL BE PRETTY FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN THOUGH...AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION FROM THEM.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE 60S ACROSS
THE PLAINS...50S FOR THE VALLEYS...AND 30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS. -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND
WEAKENING UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL CONUS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TAIL END OF
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TRANSLATES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WARMING ALOFT UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AT AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ON WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE TO ALSO HELP QUASH
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH LATEST MODELS STILL
INDICATING POSSIBLE CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE SW MTS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONGER WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOISTURE WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HELPS TO
DEVELOP GENERALLY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARM AIR ALOFT
HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THURSDAY...WITH MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PASSING WAVE SENDS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH LOOKS TO STALL ALONG OR NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY
CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...GENERALLY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL MINOR WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW LEADING TO MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SW COULD BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TIME WELL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING...THOUGH A VFR DECK MAY PERSIST
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THE NRN SLOPES OF THE RATON MESA
WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WHERE CIGS MAY STAY IFR INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING. MEANWHILE...KALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE EVENING.  NORTHEAST WINDS 10-20 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER 01-
02Z FOR ALL THREE TAF SITES.  VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY
WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. -KT&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.