Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 052134
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
334 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

CURRENTLY...UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY E-NE ALONG THE CO/NM
BORDER...WITH DEEP E-SE FLOW DRIVING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA. LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS KEPT THUNDERSTORMS TO A
MINIMUM...THOUGH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEGIN TO APPEAR ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AS STRONGER CONVECTION ROTATES NORTHWARD OUT OF
NEW MEXICO. RAINFALL RATES SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
MODEST...WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH PER HOUR UNDER THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS...MAINLY A TENTH OF INCH PER HOUR OR LESS UNDER THE LIGHTER
ACTIVITY.

TONIGHT...LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT 21Z WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST AREA OF
ORGANIZED HEAVIER PRECIP THIS EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING AFTER 00Z. STILL A LOW THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
TSRA THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS NEAR THE NM BORDER
WHERE INSTABILITY (CAPES 200-400 J/KG) IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER...BUT
OVERALL...CHANCE OF STRONGER CONVECTION AND EXTREME RAINFALL RATES
APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY LOW...SO WILL LET FLASH FLOOD WATCH END
SLIGHTLY EARLY WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE. AS LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE DEVELOPING WESTERLY LOW/MID
LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BRINGS AN END TO PRECIP OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS AFTER 06Z. WON`T MENTION FOG IN THE
FORECAST AS CLOUDS AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITY
FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH...THOUGH WITH PLENTIFUL RAIN/BL MOISTURE
AREAS OF GROUND FOG LOOK POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EL PASO COUNTY
WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO TURN W-NW.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SWLY
THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE DECREASES SOMEWHAT AS WELL...THOUGH WITH
RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WEAK
UPPER WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AT LEAST SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MANY AREAS.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND NORTHERN
AREAS...LESSER POPS FARTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WHERE DRIER AIR
PUNCHES NORTHWARD FROM NM. MAX TEMPS WILL RECOVER ALL AREAS WITH
MORE SUN AND LACK OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND A FEW SPOTS ON THE
PLAINS WILL APPROACH 80F...WITH 60S AND 70S ACROSS MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

...WEATHER PATTERN TO REMAIN ACTIVE FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

AFTER A BRIEF LULL WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...LEADING TO MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE PIKES
PEAK REGION...BUT ALSO FOR SPOTS OUT ON THE PLAINS.  LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE
SHEAR VALUES SUCH THAT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE BECOMES MORE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THE UPSLOPE LOOKS LIKE
IT GETS DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF LIGHT PRECIP...BUT POTENTIALLY REDUCES THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
THIS DAY...BY LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF HEATING.  SEVERE STORMS
PRESENTLY LOOK LESS LIKELY THIS DAY...BUT THIS IS CONTINGENT ON
HOW DEEP THE UPSLOPE FLOW REALLY TURNS OUT TO BE. COULD STILL HAVE
SOME PROBLEMS ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS
THE PIKES PEAK REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THEN...ON SATURDAY...WE BRING THE NEXT MAJOR NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO.  THIS TROUGH LOOKS VIGOROUS...WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE A LOT OF LIFT...AND GENERATE A LOT OF INTENSE
CONVECTION...IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ATMOSPHERE.  PROBLEM IS...NOT
EXACTLY SURE WHAT TRAJECTORY THIS THING IS GOING TO TAKE AS IT
EJECTS NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY.  THE 12Z GFS AND THE OLD 00Z ECMWF
TRACK IT FARTHER NORTH THAN SOME OF THE 06Z RUNS...GENERALLY
YIELDING LESS SEVERE POTENTIAL.  BUT...IF THE 06Z RUNS TURN OUT
TO BE MORE TRUE TO FORM...WATCH OUT.  COULD BE BIG SEVERE WEATHER
DAY OVER THE EAST...WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL AS HAIL/WIND
POTENTIAL.

THEN...AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY...THINGS SHIFT OVER MORE TOWARD WINTER
WEATHER AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. COLD AIR
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM COULD BRING SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS...
AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO THE LEVEL OF EL PASO COUNTY.  FARTHER EAST...
AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS...IT WOULD LIKELY BE JUST SPOTTY LIGHTER
AMOUNTS OF RAIN.

NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY.  AND THEN...BY TUESDAY...IT`S LOOKING LIKE
ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

A LOT OF WEATHER TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  DETAILS
PRESENTED NOW WILL INEVITABLY CHANGE.  PLEASE KEEP CHECKING BACK FOR
LATER UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

AT KALS...PERIODS OF SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO EARLY EARLY
EVENING...WITH AN ISOLATED TSRA ALSO POSSIBLE. IN BETWEEN
SHOWERS...PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR...WHILE UNDER THE
HEAVIER PRECIP MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE LIKELY. PRECIP DIMINISHES LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR. ON WED...VFR WITH SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA AFTER 18Z.

AT KCOS...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH...THOUGH CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT WITH MVFR AND AREAS OF
IFR LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY ALSO HAVE TO DEAL WITH
AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AS WELL WITH VERY WET GROUND AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. ON WED...ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK BY MID MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF TSRA AFTER 20Z.

AT KPUB...EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER THE HEAVIER PRECIP AND BRIEF VFR IN BETWEEN
SHOWERS. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL
DIMINISH...THOUGH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH PATCHY
GROUND FOG AS WELL. ON WED...VFR FROM MID MORNING ONWARD WITH SCT -
SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA AFTER 20Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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