Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 210955
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
355 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2015

CALM AND QUIET MORNING WILL LEAD TO A PLEASANT SPRING DAY ACROSS
SE CO TO START OFF THE WEEK. WITH H7 TEMPS ABOUT 4-5 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY...SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
MT...AND WILL SWEEP THROUGH SE CO MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THIS WILL SET OFF A ROUND OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
TS...FIRST OVER THE MTS AND THEN SPREADING TO THE PLAINS LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF QPF WITH THIS
CONVECTION...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO IF NOT A BIT
MORE THAN YESTERDAY. BEST BET FOR SOME PRECIP WILL BE IN THE 21-03Z
TIME FRAME. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...BUT COULD SEE SOME LOCAL
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WRAP UP
LATER TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING OVER
THE ERN MTS AND POSSIBLY NR THE KS BORDER. SHOULD SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT...BUT MID-HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD START
SPREADING OVER THE CONTDVD BY WED MORNING...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER SRN CA. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2015

UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY WITH MAIN UPPER JET
LYING TO THE SOUTH ROUGHLY ALONG THE US/MEX BORDER. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS BY WED AFTERNOON...TURNING WINDS TO
THE E-SE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE BY EVENING. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE RATHER SLOW WED...WITH
DEWPOINTS ON THE PLAINS NOT REACHING 40F UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AS
BETTER MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
TX/OK. GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS LOW WED...THOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY WEAK DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BUILD OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS BY EVENING.

ON THU...UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH INCREASING S-SW
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO. SURFACE LOW SPINS
UP NEAR LA JUNTA BY AFTERNOON WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
THE LOW INTO THE TX PANH AND WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS BY THU EVENING. PATTERN WOULD APPEAR
TO FAVOR STRONGER STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY POOL...THOUGH MODELS KEEP
DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 35-45 RANGE...WITH SUBSEQUENT CAPE VALUES IN
THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE. WILL KEEP A BROAD BRUSH OF TSRA CHANCES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH STORM CHANCES AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN.

UPPER LOW THEN LIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...BRINGING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO MOST LOCATIONS
INTO FRI EVENING. SERIES OF FAST MOVING WAVES WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF AT LEAST WEAK DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BEFORE PATTERN SHIFTS
AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS. TEMPS THU-SUN WILL RUN WITHIN +/- 5 DEG OF CLIMO
AVERAGES...WITH THE COOLEST DAY LIKELY FRI...BEFORE WARMING TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24-30H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GENERALLY IN THE 21-03Z
TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT
VC THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE


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