Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 030530
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1130 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACRS THE AREA WILL HELPS SPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD ACRS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN TSTM THREATS WL BE GUSTY WINDS...WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. THERE IS STILL THE
CHANCE FOR A COUPLE MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AROUND 1
INCH DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
SERN PLAINS. MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

ON SUN AN UPR TROF WL MOVE TO ALONG THE CA COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE SW TO S FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF WL BRING AN INCREASE IN MSTR TO
THE FORECAST AREA AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN.  SHOWERS OR TSTMS WL
PROBABLY DEVELOP OVR THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD...BY
LATE MORNING...THEN SPREADING TO THE ERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS ON SUN WL STILL BE QUITE WARM...GENERALLY BEING 5-10 DEG
ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...WET WEATHER AHEAD...

STILL ON TRACK FOR A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER...BEGINNING SUNDAY
EVENING AND LASTING AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WETTEST
PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

QG FORCING WILL INCREASE SUN INTO MON AS THE UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA
BEGINS MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW...AND DIFFLUENT FLOW REGIME BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL-SRN ROCKIES. WHILE POPS WILL BE LOWER
SUN NIGHT...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF ISOLD OR SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING. BY MONDAY...WE WILL SEE A
GOOD SRLY FETCH COMING UP FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AZ. DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO POSSIBLY
LOWER 50S WILL BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN PLAINS. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY. ON
PAPER...THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE SOME THREAT OF SVR SINCE SHEAR AND
CAPE WILL BE FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION TO ALLOW FOR ANY REAL ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.
FLOODING CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WALDO AREA...WILL INCREASE
AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S
AND THEN 60S DURING THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE NEW WEEK.

SYSTEM IS PRETTY WARM WITH THE SW-NE TRAJECTORY...SO EXPECT SNOW
LEVELS TO BE PRETTY HIGH...AT LEAST 11K FEET INITIALLY IF NOT
HIGHER. HOWEVER...SINCE IT IS NOW MAY...RECREATIONISTS SHOULD BE
AWARE THAT WINTER CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER
PEAKS...WITH SOME SPOTTY ACCUMS OF SIX INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS WET PERIOD.

WET WX CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO ERN CO ON TUE AND TUE
NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING ANYWHERE FROM .5 TO 1.5 INCHES
OF QPF POSSIBLE OVER THE CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM. AS THE LOW TRACKS
INTO NE CO EARLY WED...EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO DROP OVER SERN
CO...BUT STILL COULD SEE ONGOING SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS AND CONTDVD.

SYSTEM FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...AS IT CUTS OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN...BUT
THEN BOTH THE EC AND GFS TRACK IT NEWD THROUGH WY AND MT...SO MOST
OF SRN CO IS STUCK IN THE DRY SW FLOW SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS
SYSTEM BRINGS CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR TO THE MTS...HOWEVER...SO WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SNOW POTENTIAL OVER THE CONTDVD AND UPPER ARKANSAS
DEPENDING ON HOW THE STORM TRACKS. FOR NOW...LOW POPS GIVEN BY
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE LOOK APPROPRIATE FOR THE AREA. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS THROUGH 18Z SUN. A
WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15KTS AT COS AND PUB BECOMING
UPSLOPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WITHIN GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
STORMS POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 20Z SUN AND
02Z MON...BRINGING BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35KTS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW


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