Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 171614
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1014 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW QUAD OF THE STATE IS CONTINUING TO SWEEP
HEAVY SNOWFALL BACK INTO THE LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTY AREAS...AS
PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SPOTTER REPORTS.
THEREFORE...UPGRADED EXISTING SNOW ADVISORIES FOR LOWER PORTIONS
OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...IN EFFECT
UNTIL 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. MOORE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THERE ARE SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS AND SNOW AMOUNTS.

STILL SEE OCNL LIGHTNING STRIKES OVR SERN CO THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE UPR LOW CENTERED OVR NWRN NM THIS
MORNING...AND IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  BY 12Z SAT...THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE LOW CENTER
IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH
THE LOW ABOUT OVR THE PALMER DVD...THE GFS IS A LITTLE FARTHER E AND
S THAN THE ECMWF.  THE NAM HAS THE LOW CENTER AT 12Z SAT OVR NRN
SAGUACHE COUNTY.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY THE MODELS SHOW CONTINUED MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW ACRS THE PIKES PEAK REGION...FREMONT COUNTY AND LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WITH SOME PCPN ALSO OVR THE SW MTNS AND SRN
PORTIONS OF THE ERN MTNS...JUST NOT AS HEAVY AS NRN AREAS.  AT THE
SAME TIME...A DRY SLOT WL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER...THE NAM HAS AN AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...MAINLY N OF
HIGHWAY 50 OVR THE ERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LAS ANIMAS AND
BACA COUNTIES REMAINING DRY. THE GFS AND HRRR ARE DRY THIS AFTERNOON
OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS.  STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVR BACA AND LAS
ANIMAS COUNTIES...ALONG WITH RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 15 PERCENT ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON SO WL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE
LOCATIONS.  PORTIONS OF SRN PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES MAY ALSO REACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PCPN OVR THESE COUNTIES WL
KEEP ME FROM ISSUING A FIRE HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME.  THE NAM
DECREASES PCPN OVR MANY OF THE MTN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE IT
STILL LOOKS GOOD ON THE GFS OVR THE NRN MTNS PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE ECMWF DECREASES PCPN OVR THE PIKES PEAK REGION BUT KEEPS GOOD
PCPN GOING OVR LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES.

THE GFS IS MUCH DRIER AT THE SFC THIS AFTERNOON OVR THE FAR SERN
PLAINS THAN THE NAM...WHICH MAKES A DIFFERENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WX.  WL LEAN THE FORECAST A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NAM OVR
PROWERS...BENT...AND KIOWA COUNTIES.  IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...CAPE
VALUES COULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 600-1500 J/KG OVR PROWERS...NRN BENT
AND KIOWA COUNTIES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50-60 KTS...AND WE
COULD SEE A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS.  THE HRRR ALSO SETS UP A DRYLINE
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50S THIS AFTERNOON OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER...IF THE DRIER GFS IS CORRECT THE BETTER MSTR AND SVR
CHANCES WL BE EAST OF THE AREA.

TONIGHT AS THE UPR LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...MUCH OF THE
SERN PLAINS LOOK TO BE DRY...WITH MANY OF THE MTN AREAS STILL SEEING
SOME PCPN.  ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERING POSITIONS OF THE UPR LOW CENTER
RESULT IN DIFFERENCES IN WHAT MTNS AREAS WL HAVE THE BEST PCPN
CHANCES.  WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...LATEST MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF STRONG
UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO EARLY SATURDAY SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM THEN
WEAKENING AND MERGING WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EARLY
SATURDAY REMAINS ACROSS THE CONTDVD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MTS WITH
DEVELOPING WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE PASSING SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH COLD CORE UPPER LOW TRANSLATING
INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. MAY NEED TO EXTEND OR ADD WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS INTO SATURDAY WITH SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AOA 10KT FEET. MID LEVEL TEMPS SLOWLY
WARM SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD SEE
HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER AS A RESULT...THOUGH STILL BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

PASSING UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY SENDS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. A MINOR
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SATURDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE SLOWLY MODERATING
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...A REX LIKE BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHS
SETTING UP OVER THE COASTS. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST KEEPING
UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ALONG WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE WITHIN DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

KCOS WL MAINLY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.  THIS AFTERNOON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
AGAIN.

KPUB SHOULD GENERALLY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.

KALS SHOULD GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...WHEN
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.  BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ058>063-072-
073-080-082.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ077>079-084.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ233-237.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ076-081.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ074-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ066.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



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