Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 300544
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1144 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER...HRRR AND RAP STILL SUGGEST A SMALL WINDOW FOR
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEEING SOME CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUANS AND
SOUTHERN SANGRES...SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW GRADE POPS FOR THESE
AREAS. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS.

ON THURSDAY...A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN U.S. ROCKIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL SEND A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT INTO
THE PIKES PEAK REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.  INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE A ROUND OF ISOLATED
TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
MEANWHILE...WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO THIS
WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH BASED...WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING THE PRIMARY
STORM THREATS. -KT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015

...INCREASING HEAVY RAIN THREAT EARLY NEXT WEEK...

OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH
WILL HELP GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FRONTAL PUSH OVER THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER WX ON FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S OVER THE PLAINS.
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...
AND INCREASED UPSLOPE OVER THE PLAINS FRI AFTERNOON SHOULD ALSO
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. A
COUPLE STORMS MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE BURN SCARS FRI AFTERNOON AND EVE...BUT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING
AT A DECENT CLIP AND WILL DISSIPATE OFF TO THE EAST FRI EVE.

OVER THE WEEKEND...INCREASED ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING JUNE-LIKE TEMPS
TO THE REGION...WITH MID 80S A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WARM SPOTS
OVER THE PLAINS. EXPECT DIURNAL STORMS AGAIN...FORMING OVER THE
HIGHER TRRN AND SHIFTING TO THE PLAINS IN THE EVENING. WILL SEE
CONVECTION COVERAGE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER
SHORT-WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE PACNW AND THEN THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES.

BY MONDAY...A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE BAJA REGION WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE DESERT SW...AND INCREASED SRLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS
WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO SE CO. SO...HEAVY RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY...AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN BUT INCREASING SHEAR COULD ALSO BRING A FEW STRONG TO SVR
STORMS AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER. AFTER TUE...MODELS DIVERGE A BIT
ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW EJECTS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...AND ALSO THE
IMPACT OF A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACNW.
SO...UNCERTAINTY IS PRETTY HIGH BEYOND TUE...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE
UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



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