Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 021725
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1125 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

MADE SOME MINOR POP CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING AND UPDATED THE FIRE
WX GRIDS FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS BUT
GENERALLY LESS WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY...

SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...DUE
TO SHOWERS THAT FELL YESTERDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SHOULD
NOT BE TOO WIDESPREAD...BUT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S CLOSING
IN ON DEW POINTS ALSO IN THE 40S...IT IS BEGINNING TO HAPPEN IN A
FEW SPOTS. THE LAMAR AIRPORT REPORTED 2 MILES AND LIGHT FOG AROUND
4 AM. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...TRIGGERING
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. PRIMARY STORM
THREATS TODAY WILL TEND TO BE GEARED MORE TOWARD LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO MIX OUT INTO THE 30S
VERSUS YESTERDAY`S 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS PRECIP
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND...AND MORE WIND. IN ADDITION...WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WILL
FURTHER ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT. LOOKS LIKE GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH EVEN HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN SOME CASES.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A PORTION OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER IN THE MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AREA TODAY...SITING THE POSSIBILITY OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE RELATIVELY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER. MUCH LIKE FRIDAY...MOST ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

MODELS STILL LOOK TO BE CONSISTENT AND ON TRACK FOR A BUSY WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH MID-WEEK.

SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN US ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF THE
NEXT INCOMING LOW PRES SYSTEM. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST VERY WARM
DAY BEFORE COOLER AIR AND INCREASED CONVECTION POTENTIAL MOVES IN.
LOOK FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE MTS BY LATE
MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO SCATTERED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE AFTN. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 80S
FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE
E PLAINS OF COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT MODELS HINT AT THIS
FRONT INITIALLY STRUGGLING TO CROSS THE PALMER DVD AND BEING DELAYED
UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN CA EARLY MONDAY...AND WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
DESERT SW AND CO THROUGH TUESDAY. ON WED THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND
EXIT THE NE QUAD OF THE STATE. MODELS ARE REMAINING FIRM ON PAINTING
THIS AS A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT CUMULATIVE QPF AMOUNTS. THE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING WILL
DROP TEMPS ON MONDAY BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES...THEN THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND PCPN CHANCES WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
THROUGH WED. INCREASED POPS FOR THE MTS AND E PLAINS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...THEN STARTED TAPERING POPS OFF ON
WED AS THE SYSTEM EXITS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GFS AND EC MODELS INDICATE THAT AS THE ONE
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA...ANOTHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SYSTEM WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR THU AND FRI. MODELS DISAGREE ON WHAT
THIS TRANSLATES INTO FOR THE CWA...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MORE DRY
SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE EC. FOR NOW...KEPT TEMPS BOTH DAYS SIMILAR
TO READINGS EXPECTED MON THROUGH WED...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED POPS
FOR MOST AREAS INTO FRI. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TERMINAL SITES THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 20Z...THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS IN THE VCNTY COULD CAUSE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28


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