Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 180249
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
849 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINTER HEADLINES BASED ON
OBS...TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
AND MOST PERSISTENT PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE MTS NORTH OF HGWY
50 TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SO...HAVE CANCELED THE ADVISORIES FOR THE
SANGRES AND WETS. EXTENDED PIKES PEAK AND THE SAWATCH TIL 00Z SUN
SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE PERIODS OF MODT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW.
TELLER MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE EXTENDED BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES
IN HOW THE BAND OF SNOW NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SET
UP...WILL LEAVE THE ENDING TIME FOR SAT MORNING FOR NOW. HRRR HAS
MOST OF THE HEAVIER QPF NORTH OF TELLER WHILE THE RAP AND NAM
HAVE IT DIRECTLY OVER TELLER. SO...AMOUNTS ARE MOST UNCERTAIN
OVER THE PIKES PEAK AREA BUT THE GOING ADVISORY COVERS THAT
HAZARD FOR NOW. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE SW QUAD OF THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WAS WRAPPING DRY AIR UP INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CO EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF PCPN AND EVEN
CLOUD COVER FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. BEFORE THE DRY AIR MOVED
IN...HEAVY SNOW WAS REPORTED OVER MANY OF THE AREA MTS AS WELL AS
THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN...ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ALL ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR. CLOUD ENHANCEMENT WAS OCCURRING
AS OF 3 PM OVER THE S MTS...SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH. FARTHER
EAST...DRY AIR PUSHED INTO THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE AND HELPED TO
PUSH THE SEVERE THREAT N AND NE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STRUGGLED
ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTN AS LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE ROBBED LLVL
ENERGY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE UPPER LOW
GO. MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT IT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH INTO
CENTRAL COLORADO THIS EVENING...THEN EDGE DUE EAST THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTN. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE CUSTOMERS
SCRATCHING THEIR HEADS...ALL MODELS INCLUDING THE HI-RES OFFERINGS
SHOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING OVER THE PALMER DVD AND RAMPART RANGE...AS
WELL AS THE CENTRAL MTS...N SANGRES AND WETS...THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK AS SIGNIFICANT NOW AS
THEY DID 12 HRS AGO...AND HANDLING OF THE HIGHLIGHTS WAS
EXCEPTIONALLY TRICKY. DECIDED TO PUSH ALL ENDING TIMES OF HIGHLIGHTS
TO 12Z TOMORROW MORNING...AND CONVERTED SOME OF THE ONGOING WARNINGS
TO ADVISORIES. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND HIGHLIGHT GRIDS
WILL OCCUR UNDOUBTEDLY. AS FOR TEMPS...FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MUCH OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND HIGH VALLEYS WILL MAKE FOR A COLD NIGHT...AS
WELL AS MODIFYING THE MAX TEMP TOMORROW DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES. LOOK
FOR MAX TEMPS TOMORROW IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 F FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS...50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE E PLAINS...WITH AREAS THAT
RECEIVED EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER ON THE LOWER END. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

OLD UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.
ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL SPREAD ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MTS/PALMER
DIVIDE SATURDAY EVENING...AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL BE THAT HEAVY...BUT A COUPLE INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MTS AND PIKES PEAK REGION WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH 1-2 ACROSS THE
PALMER DIVIDE. IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...SO THERE IS ALWAYS A
CHANCE FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW...BUT THINK THESE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED. MEANWHILE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
RAIN ACROSS THE SE PLAINS EARLY BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE SUN
MORNING. WINDS REALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY BEHIND
THE SYSTEM WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE
PLAINS. FORTUNATELY MANY PLACES HAVE HAD SOME RAIN...WHICH SHOULD
MINIMIZE BLOWING DUST CONCERNS SOME...AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM REACHING CRITICAL
LEVELS WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER REINFORCING NORTHERLY SURGE MOVES THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ENHANCE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT. GFS SPREADS THESE
SHOWERS EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS THOUGH
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN. WESTERN U.S UPPER RIDGE
TRANSLATES EASTWARD FOR TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS STAYING MORE CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS. AGAIN...MAINLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.  UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER CO FOR WEDNESDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY INTO THE PLAINS THURS AND FRI AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES
TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN.  LOTS OF VARIABILITY BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS ON TIMING...BUT BOTTOM LINE IS FOR INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SPREADING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE CONTDVD REGION BY LATE WEEK.  TEMPERATURES REBOUND ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THOUGH SOUTHEAST FLOW ADVECTS HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO THE
PLAINS BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES...THIS SHOULD HELP DEVELOP A DRY LINE AND PUSH IT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAIN...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO ITS EAST
THURS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...IF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CAN RETURN...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM...THESE DETAILS ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AIR HAS SPREAD IN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF
SITES...THOUGH THESE WILL BE FAIRLY SPOTTY AND IF THEY DO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS..WILL GENERALLY DO SOME BEFORE 03Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT
OUT OF THE NORTH AT KCOS AND KPUB DURING THE EVENING HOURS AT
AROUND 10-15 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON SATURDAY
WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS AS THE UPPER LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. KCOS MAY SEE ANOTHER PASSING SHOWER IN THE
VCNTY OF THE TERMINAL SAT AFTN...WHILE KPUB AND KALS HAVE A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF STAYING DRY. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ059-063-
066-081.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060-
061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE


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