Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 021553
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
953 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

MADE SOME MINOR POP CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING AND UPDATED THE FIRE
WX GRIDS FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS BUT
GENERALLY LESS WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY...

SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...DUE
TO SHOWERS THAT FELL YESTERDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SHOULD
NOT BE TOO WIDESPREAD...BUT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S CLOSING
IN ON DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE 40S...IT IS BEGINNING TO HAPPEN IN A FEW
SPOTS.  THE LAMAR AIRPORT REPORTED 2 MILES AND LIGHT FOG AROUND 4
AM.  THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...TRIGGERING
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. PRIMARY STORM
THREATS TODAY WILL TEND TO BE GEARED MORE TOWARD LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS.  AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO MIX OUT INTO THE 30S
VERSUS YESTERDAY`S 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS PRECIP
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND...AND MORE WIND.  IN ADDITION...WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WILL FURTHER
ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT.  LOOKS LIKE GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH EVEN HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN SOME CASES.  THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A PORTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COLORADO PLAINS ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER IN THE MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AREA TODAY...SITING THE POSSIBILITY OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER. MUCH LIKE FRIDAY...MOST ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

MODELS STILL LOOK TO BE CONSISTENT AND ON TRACK FOR A BUSY WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH MID-WEEK.

SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN US ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF THE
NEXT INCOMING LOW PRES SYSTEM. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST VERY WARM
DAY BEFORE COOLER AIR AND INCREASED CONVECTION POTENTIAL MOVES IN.
LOOK FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE MTS BY LATE
MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO SCATTERED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE AFTN. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 80S
FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE
E PLAINS OF COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT MODELS HINT AT THIS
FRONT INITIALLY STRUGGLING TO CROSS THE PALMER DVD AND BEING DELAYED
UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN CA EARLY MONDAY...AND WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
DESERT SW AND CO THROUGH TUESDAY. ON WED THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND
EXIT THE NE QUAD OF THE STATE. MODELS ARE REMAINING FIRM ON PAINTING
THIS AS A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT CUMULATIVE QPF AMOUNTS. THE COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING WILL
DROP TEMPS ON MONDAY BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES...THEN THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND PCPN CHANCES WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
THROUGH WED. INCREASED POPS FOR THE MTS AND E PLAINS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...THEN STARTED TAPERING POPS OFF ON
WED AS THE SYSTEM EXITS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GFS AND EC MODELS INDICATE THAT AS THE ONE
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA...ANOTHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SYSTEM WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR THU AND FRI. MODELS DISAGREE ON WHAT
THIS TRANSLATES INTO FOR THE CWA...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MORE DRY
SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE EC. FOR NOW...KEPT TEMPS BOTH DAYS SIMILAR
TO READINGS EXPECTED MON THROUGH WED...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED POPS
FOR MOST AREAS INTO FRI. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE SHOWERS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MAINLY
MVFR...POSSIBLY LOCAL IFR/LIFR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FOG.  BELIEVE THE
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES WILL PROBABLY STAY FREE OF THE
FOG...WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY...EAST OF LA JUNTA.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA
TODAY...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE SURFACE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY...SO THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM TODAY`S STORMS WILL LEAN
TOWARD LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. GUSTS TO
50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH EVEN HIGHER GUSTS IN A FEW SPOTS.

GENERALLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  ADDITIONALLY...LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH
OR 2 WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET FROM SNOW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSNOW.

THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY VFR FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
COMING ACROSS THAT STORMS WILL AT SOME POINT BE IN THE VICINITY OF
EACH OF THESE SITES.  SO...WILL CARRY VCTS AT EACH SITE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS AS THESE STORMS PASS BY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW


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