Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 011449
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
849 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

UPDATED FOR MAINLY POPS BASED ON THE LATEST SAT
IMAGES...OBS...WSR...AND 12Z DATA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HYR TRRN LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD EWD
THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 12Z DATA INDICATES
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES. STORMS WILL
BE MOVING PRETTY WELL TO THE E WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE THE
THREAT...BUT TRAINING CELLS COULD AGGRAVATE THINGS. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

...INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEGUN TO MOISTEN UP OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.  A
COLD FRONT DROPPED SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING...
RAISING SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS.  WHILE THIS IS STILL NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE...IT`S CERTAINLY
A LOT BETTER THAN YESTERDAY`S MID 20S TO MID 30S.  EVEN DEWPOINTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS HAVE SHOWN A GOOD BUMP UP...NOW IN
THE 30S VERSUS YESTERDAY`S TEENS AND 20S.  SO...ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS TODAY SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE PUNCH THAN YESTERDAY.

MODELS HAVE A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DURING
PEAK HEATING.  TRIED TO TRACE IT DOWN IN SATELLITE PICTURES BUT IT
IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO FIND.  THE BEST I CAN TELL...IT LINES UP
WITH SOME CLOUDS/WATER VAPOR IN SATELLITE PICTURES OVER NORTHEAST
ARIZONA AT THIS HOUR.  MODELS HAVE THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKING
NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...ACTING AS A
DECENT TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

TODAY`S CONVECTION SHOULD PACK MORE PUNCH THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO
INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND A STRONGER TRIGGER.  THERE
WILL BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME STRONG
STORMS TODAY. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE CONVECTION MAY BE
THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR. LATEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES FOR THE PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST IN THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE.  THIS IS
ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT NOT OPTIMAL.  SO...WE WILL
BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH REGARD TO WIND SHEAR.

ALL MODELS HAVE THE CONVECTION PRETTY MUCH EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
BY 6 PM...BUT CONTINUING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING AND/OR EXITING THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT.

PRIMARY STORM THREATS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...PEA SIZE HAIL AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.  HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS...THAT GET MORE
ORGANIZED...COULD GENERATE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH.  THE LARGER HAIL AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN TO PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT
WEEK...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY...THEN WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR AFTN AND EVE SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS EACH DAY...THOUGH
CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS EDGES
EAST AND THE PACIFIC TAP BEGINS TO OPEN OVER THE 4 CORNERS. LOOK FOR
VERY WARM TEMPS BOTH DAYS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE
PLAINS...AND 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. LATE SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP DOWN THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT
LOOK TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD UNTIL CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS CA EARLY MONDAY...AND WILL TRACK ACROSS AZ...THE 4
CORNERS AND CO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC MODELS
INDICATE THIS WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE REGION WITH
POTENTIALLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ON TAP FOR SOUTHERN CO. THE
COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP
TEMPS ON MONDAY BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES...THEN ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AND
PCPN WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGH WED. ADJUSTED
THE POP GRIDS UPWARDS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD...AND THOUGH THIS MAY BE
A BIT HEAVY-HANDED THE MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARDS SUCH A SET UP.

THURSDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE ON THURSDAY...WITH VARYING
SOLUTIONS ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE
STATE. GFS WEAKENS THE LOW WED NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN THE GREAT BASIN AND GIVING THE FORECAST AREA
A BRIEF DRY POCKET. THE EC...ON THE OTHER HAND...KEEPS A BAGGY
TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE STATE WITH PCPN CONTINUING. THE
EXTENDED PROCEDURE PRODUCED ISOLATED POPS FOR THE AREA AND GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPS...WHICH AT THIS POINT LOOKS REASONABLE. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FLIGHT AREA TODAY...GENERATING SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...AND THEN MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING.  CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...NAVIGATION THROUGH STORMS COULD RESULT IN
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND I-25
CORRIDOR 18Z-00Z...AND THEN OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR 00Z-06Z.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS WILL INCLUDE LIGHTNING...
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...PEA SIZE HAIL AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.  A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR
EASTWARD COULD PRODUCE 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
60 MPH.  ALSO...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET COULD SEE MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSNOW.  FOR THE KCOS...KPUB
AND KALS TAF SITES...GENERALLY VFR NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW



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