Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KPUB 182114
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
314 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL CO THIS
AFTN...PROVIDING FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE E
PLAINS AND MTS...AND CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL MTS.
TEMPS WARMED INTO THE MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS TODAY...BEFORE
BRISK AND COLD N-NW FLOW SETTLED IN AND DROPPED TEMPS BACK INTO THE
40S.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND CROSSES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUES EAST THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. THIS WILL MEAN A SHIFTING OF CONVECTION AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH STRONG N-NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THEN SETTLING IN AND MAKING FOR A WINDY NIGHT.
MODELS INDICATED THAT SNOW WOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS
JUST A BIT LONGER...SO DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SNOW ADVISORY THERE
UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES. AS FOR STORM
POTENTIAL FOR THE PLAINS TONIGHT...LOOKS AS IF THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL REMAIN TO THE N AND NE OF THE CWA...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD
STILL GET FEISTY THIS EVENING PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WINDS UP TO
50 MPH. THE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD SERVE TO HELP KEEP MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT SLIGHTLY ELEVATED.

TOMORROW...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY...ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF
THROUGH LATE MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE STATE AND MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE MTS THROUGH MID-LATE AFTN. THE
CONTDVD WILL LIKELY BEAR THE BRUNT OF THIS WAVE. AS FOR TEMPS...A
SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60 F. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

FCST DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A COOLER AND
SOMEWHAT WETTER PATTERN. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY.
DURING THIS PERIOD SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION
BRINGING OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIP TO THE AREA. FROM WED THROUGH
FRIDAY FLOW WEAKENS ALOFT AS A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE COMING IN FROM S
CALIF MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD TRACK JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THIS DISTURBANCE
ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME PRECIP TO THE AREA. GIVEN THE
COOL AND GENERALLY WEAK FLOW...FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE NIL DURING
THIS ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LARGE
CYCLONE LOCATED LOCATED OVER THE GREATER GREAT LAKES REGION.
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION BRINGING WEAK COOL FRONTS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE
REGION. GIVEN THIS PATTERN...THE C MTNS WILL BE MOST FAVORED
ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIME
PERIODS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE S CALIF SYSTEM AS MID LVL
FLOW SHIFTS TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
PACIFIC. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP...HI MTN SNOWS
AND VALLEY RAINS...TO THE SW MTNS. SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE
WEEK...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE
OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE DURING THE THU AND FRI AFTERNOON TIME
PERIODS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARDS AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
FCST DISTRICT.

LOOKING INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS DIVERGE. EC WANTS TO BRING ANOTHER
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION CONTINUING THE
THREAT OF PRECIP FOR THE AREA. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND BUILDS A RIDGE
OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF
SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS. UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS WELL AS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THROUGH
THE EARLY EVE. WRAPAROUND ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THIS EVE. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES EAST...STRONG N-NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT...AFFECTING KCOS AND KPUB SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ058-
060-061.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.