Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 221006
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
406 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015

...STORMS A BIT STRONGER TODAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...TWO SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEAK
RIDGE. ONE CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY IN IR SAT IMAGERY AS A LINE OF
INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE CO-NM LINE. THIS WAVE
WILL CROSS THROUGH SE CO DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND COULD TRIGGER
SOME ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN MTS AND SURROUNDING AREAS. A
SECOND...STRONGER WAVE CAN BE SEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF NM AND AZ...AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO SRN CO BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. PV IMAGES SHOW THIS DISTURBANCE QUITE NICELY. THIS
WAVE WILL SET OFF A MORE ROBUST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE WAVE CLEARS
OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR IN THE 23Z-03Z TIME FRAME TO A SOLID CHANCE OF STORMS.
AS MENTIONED IN YESTERDAY`S DISCUSSION...WINDS ALOFT ARE INITIALLY
WEAK AND THIS WILL LIMIT STORM STRENGTH...ALONG WITH MODEST CAPE
IN THE 750-1000 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE...WILL SEE MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AFTER 00Z...WITH BULK
SHEARS INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KTS. SO...GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT
TIMING SHOWS THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THRU
EARLY EVE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE A STRONG STORM OR
TWO DEVELOP. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE
SOME LOCALLY STRONG WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH AND HAIL TO ABOUT NICKEL
SIZE. STORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES
OFF TO THE NE AND WE LOSE DAY TIME HEATING. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS
INTACT OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS BUT ANY PRECIP THERE SHOULD BE
LIGHT AND SPOTTY. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPS ALOFT...AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015

WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD THU...AND WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS LEAD TO FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DRY LINE NEAR THE KS
BORDER BY LATE THU AFTERNOON. APPEARS BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
FOR STRONGER TSRA WILL END UP IN NE COLO/NW KS AND NEB
PANH...THOUGH IF LA JUNTA CYCLONE CAN DEEPEN ENOUGH TO WRAP SOME
MOISTURE BACK WESTWARD...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER LATE IN THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...TOUGH TO RULE
OUT CONVECTION COMPLETELY...THOUGH DRY LOW LEVELS SUGGEST STORMS
WILL BE RATHER WEAK. UPPER TROUGH THEN EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...KEEPING AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO FRI AFTERNOON. AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS LIMITED...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP A LID ON STORM STRENGTH AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. BRIEF UPPER RIDGE EARLY SAT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY
INCREASING SW FLOW SAT AFTERNOON AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS LAPSE RATES GRADUALLY STEEPEN...WITH BEST
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

SUNDAY/MONDAY UPPER TROUGH NOW LOOKS MUCH MORE VIGOROUS THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE 4 CORNERS BY
SUNDAY EVENING THEN EJECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MON. HAVE
BEGUN TO TREND POPS HIGHER AND TEMPS LOWER BOTH SUN/MON...SUSPECT
WE`LL NEED TO CONTINUE THAT TREND IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONFIRM
THE STRONGER SYSTEM. CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN STILL ON TRACK
FOR NEXT WEEK...AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TUE/WED BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW...WITH WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO ALL
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY BUT COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE TS FROM 21Z THROUGH 03Z OR LATER AT ALL THREE
SITES...BUT THE PROBABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST AT KCOS IN THAT TIME
FRAME. A COUPLE STORMS EAST OF I-25 COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL GR
EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER 06Z...A SHALLOW LAYER OF IFR CIGS IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...AND COULD PUSH AS
FAR WEST AS KPUB UP THE ARKANSAS VALLEY BY 12Z THU. HOWEVER...THIS
IS UNCERTAIN ATTM AND WILL LEAVE EXPLICIT MENTION OF LOW CIGS OUT
OF THE TAF FOR NOW. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE


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