Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 151616
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1016 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

UPDATED TO ADD KIOWA AND PROWERS COUNTIES TO THE RED FLAG WARNING
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN ARE
THE WESTERN HALF OF KIOWA COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
PROWERS COUNTY. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRYLINE DEPENDENT AND WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG IT. IF THE DRYLINE KICKS OUT INTO
KANSAS FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...THE REMAINDER OF KIOWA
AND PROWERS COUNTIES MAY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH
ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES INCLUDING GRILLING.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE FIRE
WEATHER AND BLOWING DUST THREAT AND POTENTIALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES...POPS AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.

CURRENTLY...CWFA EXPERIENCING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS SNOW AT
TIMES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN COMBINATION WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN WINDS.

LATEST PV ANALYSIS...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND NEAR/REAL TIME DATA
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO TONIGHT AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY.  MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO BE
LOCATED OVER BACA COUNTY BY 00Z THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO KANSAS
LATER TONIGHT.

DUE TO THE EXISTING DRY CONDITIONS AND PROJECTED LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
CONTINUE OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AS WELL AS SOUTHERN EL PASO...
PUEBLO...EASTERN HUERFANO...LAS ANIMAS...CROWLEY...OTERO... BENT AND
BACA COUNTIES FROM 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING.
IN ADDITION...HAVE DEPICTED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST FROM LATER TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND EASTERN
COLORADO.

NEXT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OR EVEN A
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER AS WELL AS
FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY...ALTHOUGH RECENT SHORT
RANGE COMPUTER SIMULATIONS HAVE STARTED TO BACK OFF ON THIS
POSSIBILITY.  AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY.

ALSO...HAVE CONTINUED WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER MANY
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA TODAY AND ESPECIALLY BY LATER TONIGHT AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW NEARS THE FORECAST DISTRICT.  HIGHER MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL TWO INCHES OF
SNOW TONIGHT.  IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DECREASING OVER MANY LOCATIONS
TONIGHT.  FINALLY...NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE MID-APRIL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTED OVER MANY LOCATIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  THE NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPR LOW CENTER FOR
THU...SHOWING IT NR THE FOUR CORNERS.  THU MORNING THE SERN PLAINS
GENERALLY LOOK TO BE DRY...WITH THE MTN AREAS SEEING SOME PCPN.  IN
THE AFTERNOON...AS A DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE UPR LOW INTO THE
AREA...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVR THE SERN PLAINS AS WELL.

MODELS DIFFERENCES START TO APPEAR THU NIGHT WHEN THE ECMWF HAS THE
UPR LOW CENTER MOVING TO ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL CO BORDER BY 12Z
FRI...WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT TO AN AREA SE OF PUEBLO AND THE NAM HAS
IT CENTERED OVR NWRN NM. THE NAM HAS SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL THU NIGHT
OVR TELLER COUNTY...PIKES PEAK AND NRN EL PASO COUNTY.  THE GFS HAS
ITS MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVR THE NRN SANGRES...WETS AND CENTRAL
MTNS...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING ITS MOST SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OVR TELLER
COUNTY...PIKES PEAK AND THE SANGRES AND WETS.  THE CENTRAL MTNS AND
NRN SANGRES LOOK TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS FRI MORNING.  AMOUNTS VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH
THE NAM PRINTING OUT THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS.

BY 00Z SAT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN THE POSITION OF THE UPR
LOW CENTER...HAVING IT OVR CENTRAL CO...WHILE THE NAM IS STILL
FARTHER SOUTH...OVER NM.  WITH THE NAM BEING AN OUTLIER WL LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE OTHER MODELS...WHICH HAVE HIGH PCPN CHANCES OVR THE MTNS
AND HIGH VALLEYS AND LOWER POPS OVR THE ERN PLAINS.  IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OF FRIDAY...PCPN MOST AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN EXCEPT OVR THE HIGH AREAS WHICH WL LIKELY SEE A FEW TO SEVERAL
MORE INCHES OF SNOW.

FRI NIGHT THE UPR LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE AND ACTUALLY
SHIFTS A BIT SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OR SWRN CO ON THE GFS AND
ECMWF...WHILE HE NAM HAS IT ENDING UP IN NERN NM BY 12Z SAT.  WL
STILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN BEING OVR THE HYR TRRN.  HOWEVER THE SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS RESULT IN A DISCREPANCY IN PCPN
CHANCE OF THE MTNS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.  WL KEEP SCT POPS ACRS THE
SERN PLAINS FRI NIGHT...BUT IF THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS COME TO
FRUITION...PCPN CHANCES WL BE NIL TO JUST ISOLD.

WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID...HAVE DECIDED THAT THERE IS A HIGH ENOUGH
CHANCE FOR SOME OF THE MTNS AREAS TO SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL THU
NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...AND WL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PIKES
PEAK...THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND WET MTNS AND THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS.  WL PROBABLY EVENTUALLY NEED AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
FOR TELLER COUNTY AND THE LEADVILLE AREA AND MAYBE OTHER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL MTNS AS WELL.

ON SAT THE UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD WHICH DRAGS PCPN OVR
THE ERN PLAINS.  THE GFS HAS TO UPR LOW OVR THE FAR SERN CORNER OF
CO BY 00Z SUN...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT OVR THE NE PANHANDLE.  THE
UPR LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF CO SAT
NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO THE AREA FOR SUN WHICH WL
KEEP THE WX UNSETTLED WITH PCPN CHANCES.  MSTR IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PCPN CHANCES THRU
MON.  UPR LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED FOR TUE...BUT MST AND AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY WL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME ISOLD OR SCT SHOWERS...MAINLY OVR
THE HYR TRRN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...OUTSIDE OF GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES...PROJECT
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES INTO TONIGHT.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-227>237.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ058-060-072>075-080-082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77


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