Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FGUS75 KPUB 071700 CCA
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COC003-009-011-015-021-023-025-027-041-043-055-061-065-071-079-089-
099-101-105-109-119-110700-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1000 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2015

...WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS
OF MARCH 1 2015...

AS OF MARCH 1...THE 2015 SNOWPACK WAS BELOW MEDIAN ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE BASIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. ACROSS THE ARKANSAS BASIN OF
SOUTHEAST COLORADO...THE SNOWPACK WAS NEAR MEDIAN.

SPECIFICALLY...THE RIO GRANDE SNOWPACK MEASURED 74 PERCENT OF MEDIAN
OVERALL WHICH WAS UP FROM 61 PERCENT OF MEDIAN A MONTH EARLIER BUT
LOWER THAN 79 PERCENT OF MEDIAN LAST YEAR AT THE SAME TIME.  THE
ARKANSAS BASIN SNOWPACK MEASURED 101 PERCENT OF MEDIAN OVERALL...UP
FROM 94 PERCENT OF MEDIAN A MONTH EARLIER BUT LOWER THAN 109
PERCENT OF MEDIAN LAST YEAR AT THE SAME TIME.

AT THE END OF FEBRUARY...OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE WAS BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  STORAGE IN THE RIO
GRANDE BASIN WAS AT 72 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVERALL...UP SLIGHTLY FROM
69 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A MONTH EARLIER...AND HIGHER THAN 68 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE A YEAR AGO AT THE SAME TIME.  IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN...
STORAGE WAS AT 80 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVERALL...WHICH WAS THE SAME
AS A MONTH EARLIER...AND HIGHER THAN 60 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A YEAR
AGO AT THE SAME TIME.

FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING
RUNOFF SEASON ARE OUTLOOKED TO RANGE FROM BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE.
FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED
LOCATIONS IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON:

RIO GRANDE RIVER
  THIRTY MILE BRIDGE             78            APR-SEP
  WAGON WHEEL GAP                81            APR-SEP
  NEAR DEL NORTE                 78            APR-SEP
SOUTH FORK RIO GRANDE RIVER
  SOUTH FORK                     67            APR-SEP
SAGUACHE CREEK
  NEAR SAGUACHE                 103            APR-SEP
ALAMOSA CREEK
  TERRACE RESERVOIR INFLOW       66            APR-SEP
LA JARA CREEK
  NEAR CAPULIN                   67            MAR-JUL
TRINCHERA CREEK
  ABOVE TURNERS RANCH           103            APR-SEP
CONEJOS RIVER
  PLATORO RESERVOIR INFLOW       71            APR-SEP
  NEAR MOGOTE                    70            APR-SEP
CULEBRA CREEK
  SAN LUIS                      104            APR-SEP
SAN ANTONIO RIVER
  ORTIZ                          58            APR-SEP
LOS PINOS
  ORTIZ                          71            APR-SEP

FOR THE ARKANSAS BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING RUNOFF
SEASON ARE OUTLOOKED TO RANGE FROM BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE. FOLLOWING
ARE THE LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS
IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON:

LOCATION                   % OF AVERAGE     RUNOFF PERIOD

ARKANSAS RIVER
  GRANITE                        94            APR-SEP
  SALIDA                         97            APR-SEP
  CANON CITY                     93            APR-SEP
  ABOVE PUEBLO                   95            APR-SEP
CHALK CREEK
  NEAR NATHROP                   96            APR-SEP
GRAPE CREEK
  NEAR WESTCLIFFE                96            APR-SEP
HUERFANO RIVER
  NEAR REDWING                   89            APR-SEP
CUCHARAS RIVER
  NEAR LA VETA                   89            APR-SEP
PURGATOIRE RIVER
  TRINIDAD                       81            APR-SEP

THESE FORECASTS REFLECT NATURAL FLOW ONLY.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW
WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF SNOWPACK AND ASSUMES
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON.  IF THE
ACTUAL OBSERVED PRECIPITATION DEVIATES FROM NORMAL...THEN THE ACTUAL
OBSERVED RUNOFF WILL LIKELY BE DIFFERENT THAN THE FORECASTS IN THIS
OUTLOOK.  THIS IS THE 3RD OF 6 OUTLOOKS ISSUED FROM JANUARY THROUGH
JUNE.  THE NEXT OUTLOOK FOR THE 2015 RUNOFF SEASON WILL BE ISSUED
DURING THE FIRST PART OF APRIL.

USERS OF THIS PRODUCT ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN PUEBLO FOR CONTINUED UPDATES ON THE WATER SUPPLY
SITUATION.  METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THAT WOULD HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS AVAILABLE ON THE WORLD WIDE
WEB...VISIT THE PUEBLO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/PUB.

THIS MESSAGE IS THE RESULT OF COORDINATED ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION
SERVICE.

LW


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