Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 252039
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
239 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

UPPER TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVERNIGHT TO OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS MOSTLY MOVED INTO ROSEBUD
COUNTY WITH MOVEMENT MAINLY NORTHWARD. HAVE SHIFTED LIKELY POPS
FROM OUR CENTRAL AREAS TO OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS FOR THIS EVENING
AND KEPT A HIGH SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCE ELSEWHERE AS RADAR IS
SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING OFF THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS.
AREAS FROM BIG HORN COUNTY TO YELLOWSTONE AND WHEATLAND COUNTIES
WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

A LARGE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAVE INDICATED. MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
ACROSS WYOMING BUT LATEST MODELS SHIFT SOME OF THIS FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL STILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN
LIKELY POPS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL
BUT THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED COOLING STILL LOOK TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH
BUT MODELS DO BRING A BIT MORE COLDER AIR INTO THE MOUNTAIN AND
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SNOW FOR THE RED LODGE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION WITH A COLD RAIN
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS.

LIKELY POPS WILL CONTINUE ALL DAY SUNDAY WITH THE PRECIP SLOWLY
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS BY EVENING LEAVING JUST A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OUT TOWARD THE
DAKOTA BORDERS WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. WE MAY SEE AROUND 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND BIG HORN
MOUNTAINS FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY OUT BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH THE SHOWERS AND RAIN
WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
AROUND NORMAL WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY WITH LOWER 60S COMMON. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES AGAIN FOR EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT. THERE ARE A FEW
TIMING ISSUES LATE IN THE PERIOD... BUT IS TO BE EXPECTED...AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES CROSS THING THE REGION.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...BRINGING SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. TEMPS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TUESDAY AND AROUND 80 IN MOST
LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. RIDGING GIVES WAY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A DEEP TROF DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BRINGING PACIFIC MOISTURE AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ACROSS
THE REGION. NOTHING APPEARS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG TO HANG OUR HAT
ON AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS A BIT COOLER...BUT STILL IN 70S ACROSS THE REGION. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD....WITH
MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN PRECIP. WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES ARE
BEGINNING TO SEE PERIODS OF CLEARING SKIES...AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION
ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS REGION...AND MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS. CIGS WILL
LOWER ONCE AGAIN TO THE VFR TO IFR RANGE...WITH LOWER VIS
CONDITIONS IN PRECIP. AAG
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038/052 037/062 041/076 048/080 048/073 049/075 048/070
    36/R    31/B    00/U    01/U    12/W    22/W    22/W
LVM 035/050 030/062 035/073 044/076 043/069 042/070 041/062
    67/R    31/B    00/U    01/U    13/W    22/W    22/W
HDN 037/056 037/064 039/076 047/081 048/075 050/078 049/071
    26/R    41/B    00/U    00/U    12/W    22/W    22/W
MLS 037/056 038/064 040/075 047/081 049/075 051/078 050/071
    24/R    41/B    00/U    00/U    11/U    22/W    22/W
4BQ 037/052 038/060 037/072 045/079 047/076 048/078 050/072
    38/R    72/W    00/U    00/U    02/W    22/W    22/W
BHK 036/053 037/057 038/070 044/075 046/072 048/076 050/070
    67/R    83/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    22/W    22/W
SHR 037/049 034/060 037/071 042/075 045/072 046/074 046/068
    47/R    62/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    22/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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