Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 200240
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
840 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...

WE REDUCED FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES IN MOST SPOTS USING
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE THAT/S VERIFIED BEST IN THE LAST SEVEN DAYS.
A DRY AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MID-EVENING DEWPOINTS MAINLY FROM
15 TO 20 F...LIGHT WINDS...AND SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE
CLOUDS DIMINISH LIKE SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THEY WILL. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

THE SHORT TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS. TOMORROW AS WE BEGIN A
WARMUP...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 15 TO 25
PERCENT. WINDS IN THE EAST WILL AGAIN INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
TO 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS IS GOING INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AT THE MOMENT CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY MARGINAL...SO HAVE NO
HIGHLIGHTS. GOING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...A WEAK WAVE WILL BRING
IN A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO OUT OF THE EAST WHICH SHOULD HELP BRING IN MORE MOISTURE
AND WILL START INCREASE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH SHORT TERM...GENERALLY IN
THE 60S TOMORROW AND NEAR 70 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

A COUPLE OF DEEP TROUGHS WERE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ONE TROUGH WAS SITUATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OTHER WAS OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IN A LIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES TO
SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. WEAK ENERGY TRIES TO
MEANDER INTO THE AREA UNDERNEATH WEAK RIDGING. THIS WILL FOCUS
POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COULD BE
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON THIS. THE GFS WAS WEAKER
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PASSAGING THROUGH THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL
LEAVE LOW POPS IN AND SEE HOW THIS PATTERN EVOLVES. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH AREAS OF MID
CLOUD IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS EAST OF KBIL. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 030/062 039/068 040/069 040/068 041/066 042/069 044/066
    00/U    00/B    10/U    12/T    23/W    22/W    43/W
LVM 028/064 035/071 038/075 037/068 038/068 037/067 038/066
    00/U    01/B    01/B    13/T    23/W    34/W    42/W
HDN 028/062 034/070 036/070 036/072 036/069 034/072 037/068
    00/U    00/B    00/U    02/T    22/W    22/W    43/W
MLS 031/058 034/067 035/067 036/069 037/066 037/066 037/066
    00/B    00/U    00/B    01/B    12/W    21/B    12/W
4BQ 027/057 031/067 033/067 034/067 037/066 035/068 034/066
    00/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    12/W    22/W    32/W
BHK 026/053 030/061 030/062 031/064 032/062 033/061 031/061
    00/B    00/B    00/U    11/B    12/W    11/B    12/W
SHR 025/057 032/066 035/068 037/069 037/066 035/068 040/065
    10/U    01/B    10/U    12/T    34/W    23/W    52/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.