Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 311519
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
919 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES.
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE AFTER 21Z IN OUR
WEST TODAY...NEAR COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL MT AND CONSISTENT WITH
SREF PROBABILITIES AND LATEST SSEO. MID AND HIGH CLOUD IS FAIRLY
THICK IN SPOTS AND THIS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON SFC TEMPS TODAY.
THAT BEING SAID...700MB PLUME TO NEAR +6C CERTAINLY WILL GET SOME
WELL-MIXED AREAS INTO THE LOWER 80S. WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE
RED FLAG WARNING WHICH COVERS A COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPS...LOW
HUMIDITY...GUSTY WINDS AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

FOR BILLINGS...LOOKS AS IF WE WILL FALL JUST A BIT SHORT OF OUR
WARMEST MARCH ON RECORD. ASSUMING A HIGH SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
77-80...THE AVERAGE TEMP WILL END UP 46.9 DEGREES...JUST SHORT OF
OUR WARMEST MARCH ON RECORD WHICH WAS 47.0 DEGREES IN 2012.

JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK...THUS HAVE NOT MADE MANY
CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM. FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE FORECAST. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING THROUGH...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARMUP CONSIDERABLY...WITH WITH HIGHS NEAR
RECORD HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT RELATIVE HUMIDIITIES TO
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 PERCENT.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATIONS OF DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 300 MB
AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCING INCREASING WINDS.
EXPECT WINDS AROUND LIVINGSTON TO BE 15 TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH. THERE
IS SOME ELEVATED CAPE...SO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A LINE
FROM HARLOWTON TO BIG TIMBER ARE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
NOT MUCH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED IN HUMIDIITIES OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER...THOUGH WITH THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO LOW DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW. WITH LARGE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
TOMORROW...WINDS WILL BE STRONG...25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
MIXING DURING PEAK HEATING. WIND SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE TOMORROW
EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DECOUPLE.

HAVE LEFT THE RED FLAG WARMING IN PLACE...WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.
REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

THE OVERALL THEME FOR THE EXTENDED IS A COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH NOTHING LOOKING OVERLY
ORGANIZED TO BE HIGH IMPACT WEATHER.

AN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. HINTS OF SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING AS WELL WHICH
WILL ALL WORK TO ENHANCE OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF BILLINGS INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. AS
UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN EASTERN MT BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST BY SUNDAY AND SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS AND KEEP A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. FRIEDERS
&&

.AVIATION...

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WSW THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN KLVM ALL DAY WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS KLVM AROUND
00Z...KBIL AROUND 04Z...KMLS AROUND 05Z AND KSHR AROUND 04Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 KT. WINDS WILL GUSTS IN THE 30S AND 40S FROM THE NW ON
WED MORNING. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND KLVM...AND OVER AND NEAR THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AFTER 21Z. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WED MORNING. LOCALIZED TO AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST
WED MORNING. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 042/058 033/049 032/056 036/057 034/056 034/055
    0/N 31/N    13/W    30/B    00/B    12/W    33/W
LVM 076 037/052 027/047 026/053 032/052 029/052 026/052
    2/T 64/W    24/W    31/B    00/B    23/W    43/W
HDN 081 040/061 030/050 028/058 031/059 033/059 034/058
    0/B 31/N    12/W    21/B    00/B    11/B    33/W
MLS 081 040/060 031/049 028/057 030/059 034/059 034/056
    0/B 21/N    12/W    12/W    00/B    11/B    33/W
4BQ 082 039/060 029/048 025/055 028/059 032/061 033/059
    0/B 21/N    12/W    11/B    00/U    01/B    22/W
BHK 078 036/058 028/045 024/053 027/056 032/058 032/054
    0/B 21/N    12/W    12/W    00/U    01/B    32/W
SHR 079 037/053 028/048 025/052 027/056 029/057 030/056
    0/B 22/W    13/W    21/B    00/U    11/B    32/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
      28>42-56>58-63>68.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
      98-99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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