Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 152148
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
348 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHEAST
WYOMING CONTINUES TO PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. RADAR SHOWING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE
BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST
AND SOUTH...THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL ALSO SHIFT
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. RADAR RETURNS ARE DECREASING ACROSS
THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND AN INCH...THEREFORE...WE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THIS LOCATION.

THE SNOW HAS FINALLY BEGUN ACROSS THE SHERIDAN AREA DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 MILES
AT TIMES. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE GUSTY
ACROSS SOUTHERN BIG HORN COUNTY INTO SHERIDAN COUNTY AS WELL.
MODELS STILL PAINT BIG HORN AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES WITH SOME DECENT
QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT MAINLY THIS EVENING. WEB CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WET ROADS BUT BELIEVE ONCE EVENING ARRIVES SOME OF THIS SNOW MAY
START STICKING TO ROAD SURFACES. WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW ADVISORY
FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND LET THE EVENING SHIFT RE-
EVALUATE LATER THIS EVENING TO SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS.

MODELS KEEP THE UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO THROUGH FRIDAY BUT THE
FAR NORTHERN DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WEAKEN SO CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRYING OUT BY THURSDAY LEAVING JUST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM
SHERIDAN COUNTY NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA. SUNSHINE
WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS AROUND NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY. SOME WEAK LEE- SIDE TROUGHING SETS
UP DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS
ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S COMMON. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS GOING TO BRING SOME STRONGER WINDS
WITH IT...CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH
TO NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT
ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THERE IS
SOME MOISTURE MOVING IN AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OUT INTO THE PLAINS...MAINLY ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY SUNDAY
EAST OF A LINE FROM BROADUS TO MILES CITY.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM....THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN
GENERALLY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH THIS FLOW...SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE.
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR
WITH SOME ISOLATED IFR. SNOW HAS INCREASE AT SHERIDAN AGAIN...AND
SOME MODELS HINT AT SOME HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS AND IT DOES NOT SEEM VERY REASONABLE. IFR
CONDITIONS...AND AT TIMES LIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER BANDS...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT SHERIDAN OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE CONTINUE....ESPECIALLY IN THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS. REIMER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 033/057 037/063 041/065 038/059 036/061 038/063 038/059
    40/B    00/U    01/N    21/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
LVM 025/056 030/066 036/064 033/058 032/061 036/063 035/059
    00/U    00/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    11/B    12/W
HDN 032/060 035/066 038/067 036/061 034/062 035/063 035/061
    70/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 034/060 036/066 041/069 036/058 033/059 034/060 034/056
    40/B    00/U    01/B    11/N    11/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 034/055 031/065 037/066 034/058 032/058 032/060 032/057
    51/B    00/U    12/W    21/N    11/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 037/059 032/065 038/068 034/056 031/055 030/056 029/053
    42/W    00/U    02/W    21/N    11/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 032/052 028/061 036/062 034/056 032/057 033/060 034/058
    81/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    11/B    11/B    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
      FOR ZONE 38.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
      FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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