Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010904
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
304 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. A FAST ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AND THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY
BEFORE THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT NORTHWEST BY LATE SATURDAY. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
READINGS WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODELS DON`T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT BUT WE CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S AND POSSIBLY AN 80 DEGREE READING FOR SOME AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

THE DISPARITY BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE LOW MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK CONTINUES...IF NOT HAS WIDENED A LITTLE. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO TRACKS THE LOW SOUTH OVER NEVADA AND ARIZONA...THE
ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE 12Z RUN OF THE EC
HAD BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS...BUT WITH THE 00Z RUN
HAS SINCE BACKED OFF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

GIVEN THAT NONE OF THE SOLUTIONS ARE STABLE ENOUGH TO LEAN ONE
WAY OR THE OTHER...HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. PRETTY KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. ONE
THING THAT DOES LOOK LIKELY IS A GENERAL COOLING TREND DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE QUESTION OF HOW MUCH REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. KEPT TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S..MAYBE
TRENDING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN FAST
WESTERLY FLOW. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE GUSTY AROUND
LIVINGSTON...GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 048/078 045/066 043/070 045/076 047/067 042/060
    0/U 00/B    22/T    32/T    22/T    23/W    33/W
LVM 075 039/075 036/068 037/071 040/075 040/065 037/059
    0/U 02/T    13/T    32/T    23/T    33/W    33/W
HDN 082 043/083 041/069 042/071 043/077 045/070 041/061
    0/U 00/B    21/B    32/T    22/T    23/W    33/W
MLS 077 048/079 044/066 042/067 045/074 047/068 042/063
    0/U 00/B    21/B    32/T    12/T    23/W    33/W
4BQ 078 043/081 043/068 043/065 045/071 047/067 041/062
    0/U 00/U    11/B    33/T    22/T    33/W    33/W
BHK 078 044/078 041/064 039/061 041/069 045/065 040/061
    0/U 00/B    21/B    33/T    11/N    23/W    33/W
SHR 075 039/077 040/066 039/067 041/070 040/064 040/057
    0/U 00/U    12/T    33/T    23/T    33/W    33/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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