Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 180206
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
806 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER COLORADO CONTINUES TO ROTATE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT
MORE IN THIS AREA. ONLY OTHER CHANGES WERE TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS AS MODELS WANT TO PUSH SOME HIGHER DEW POINT AIR
FROM THE PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE. COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. PRETTY VIGOROUS SYSTEM WITH SOME LIGHTNING SHOWING UP
WITH IT OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. HOWEVER IT IS GOING TO BE
PRETTY STARVED FOR MOISTURE ON THIS SIDE OF THE DIVIDE SO EXPECT
MAINLY A WIND EVENT FROM IT. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 45 MPH AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION TOMORROW. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAK
LEE- SIDE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. AN UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO
WILL ROTATE SOME CLOUDS NORTHWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE BY NOON FROM BILLINGS WESTWARD AND OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING A QUICK
SHOT OF SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE
BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...THE
UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WHILE A
SURFACE LOW WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE
LOWS WILL BRING AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...700MB AND 850MB
WINDS DON`T LOOK TOO STRONG BUT GUSTS MAY REACH 35 TO 45 MPH AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS MAINLY
IN THE LOWER 60S. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER YET WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
WHICH IS AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...


EXTENDED REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS A RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL RIDE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO TO THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S....BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN. THE REST OF THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
MODERATE AND NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. HAVE NOT MADE
MANY CHANGES SINCE THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BECOME N-NW AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE FOOTHILLS
AND MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED OCCASIONALLY ON SATURDAY. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/063 034/056 034/060 037/070 042/072 043/068 041/063
    03/W    21/B    10/B    00/U    01/U    12/W    33/W
LVM 035/061 029/055 034/062 035/070 039/073 039/066 038/061
    03/W    21/B    11/B    00/U    11/B    22/W    33/W
HDN 034/065 033/058 033/062 035/071 038/074 038/070 037/066
    03/W    11/N    10/B    00/U    01/U    12/W    22/W
MLS 040/066 034/056 032/058 034/068 038/070 038/066 036/063
    02/W    11/N    10/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
4BQ 034/065 031/055 031/056 032/067 036/070 036/066 035/062
    04/W    21/N    11/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W
BHK 035/062 034/051 028/054 030/064 033/064 033/061 032/058
    03/W    31/N    11/U    00/B    01/B    11/N    22/W
SHR 034/060 032/053 032/056 032/066 036/070 037/066 037/061
    04/W    31/N    11/B    00/U    01/U    13/W    34/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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