Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 170907
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
307 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

MODEST RIDGING OCCURRING OVER OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW
CUT OFF OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO STALLS. THIS WILL MEAN A
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL DAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN.
HOWEVER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE INTERESTING AS A MORE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES QUICKLY OUT OF CANADA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN MONTANA ROCKIES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE DIVES SOUTHEAST SATURDAY PHASING WITH THE UPPER LOW COMING
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL MEAN A BRISK
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE DAY. PRESSURE TENDENCIES DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH PRESSURE
RISES ONLY UP TO 5 MB PER 6 HRS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND 850MB WINDS
ARE WELL BELOW 50 KTS FOR THE MOST PART. THUS...I DO NOT SEE A
NEED FOR ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS. FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DO NOT LOOK
NECESSARY EITHER AS HUMIDITIES NEVER GET A GOOD CHANCE TO BOTTOM
OUT. THERE IS SOME DECENT Q VECTOR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. MODELS ARE PAINTING QPF OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES WHILE KEEPING OUR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES
PRETTY DRY. THIS IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE DIFFERENT MODELS
AND OUR POPS ARE ALREADY REFLECTIVE OF THIS...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
WERE MADE TO POPS. AIR BEHIND SYSTEM IS NOT VERY COLD...SO SNOW
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HIGHER MOUNTAINS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN AS FAR AS MAJOR IMPACTS
ARE CONCERNED. STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP USHER IN
RIDGING FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL SEE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S...AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER TEENS. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN BREAKING DOWN BY NEXT
THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BACK INTO THE
60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE NEXT
WEEK AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER. SINGER
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR KSHR BY
DAYBREAK...BUT IT SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY CALM DAY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. SINGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 039/062 035/056 035/063 038/070 041/070 042/070
    0/U 03/W    21/B    11/U    01/U    01/B    12/W
LVM 067 036/060 031/055 034/064 035/071 038/073 039/068
    0/U 03/W    21/B    11/U    01/B    12/W    23/W
HDN 068 034/065 033/058 033/064 035/072 036/072 035/073
    0/U 03/W    11/B    11/U    00/U    01/B    12/W
MLS 070 037/068 034/057 032/060 034/068 035/069 036/066
    0/U 02/W    11/N    00/N    00/U    00/B    11/B
4BQ 067 034/065 031/055 031/057 032/067 033/068 034/066
    0/U 04/W    21/N    10/B    00/U    01/B    12/W
BHK 069 033/065 032/054 029/055 030/065 031/061 032/058
    0/U 03/W    41/N    00/N    00/B    11/B    12/W
SHR 062 034/061 032/055 032/059 034/067 034/068 035/069
    0/U 03/W    31/N    11/B    11/B    11/B    13/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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