Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 170157
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
757 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGES TO INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING. MAINLY
DRY AND CLEAR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FROM KLVM TO KBIL TO KSHR. AAG

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

QUIET WEATHER OVERALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LARGE
UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER UTAH AND BROUGHT THE RAIN AND SNOW TO OUR
FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW CENTERED AND STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHWEST COLORADO. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW HAS SHIFTED WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO COLORADO.
A DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW CONTINUES
ACROSS OUR AREA BUT HAS BEEN WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF WITH THINNING CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. EXPECT A CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTIONING A CHANCE FOR PATCHY
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN TO BILLINGS LINE
WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND SNOW FELL DURING THE PAST 36 HOURS.

FRIDAY & SATURDAY...WE WILL SEE A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 60S. WEAK
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING SETS UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS LOW MOVE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE BY NOON FROM
BILLINGS WESTWARD AND OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
IN ADDITION...ON SATURDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVES
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WHILE A SURFACE LOW WILL BE SITUATED
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE LOWS WILL BRING AN AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND POSSIBLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. HOWEVER...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE FRONT WILL
BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE WEST...WITH 60S ACROSS THE FAR EAST AHEAD OF TE FRONT.
HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...SO NOT MANY
CHANGES. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY...PRECIP SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY...WITH MAYBE SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONGER THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MILES
CITY TO BROADUS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...EVERY COUPLE
OF DAYS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUG THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...


VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND BILLINGS...BUT IT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM
LIVINGSTON TO SHERIDAN. GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON
IMPACTS AT ANY TERMINALS...HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOG IN THE TAFS
YET. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE MID MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032/064 041/060 035/056 034/060 038/066 039/062 039/062
    00/U    02/W    31/B    11/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
LVM 029/066 035/059 030/055 031/061 035/066 035/063 036/061
    00/U    03/W    32/W    11/U    11/B    12/W    23/W
HDN 032/067 037/066 035/058 033/062 035/068 036/064 035/064
    00/U    02/W    22/W    11/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
MLS 035/068 039/069 035/057 032/059 034/064 035/061 035/061
    00/U    02/W    21/N    01/N    00/U    11/B    11/B
4BQ 032/066 038/064 033/055 031/057 032/063 033/060 034/064
    00/U    14/W    31/N    01/U    01/U    11/B    22/W
BHK 032/068 036/065 034/054 029/055 030/060 031/056 030/060
    00/U    03/W    41/N    01/N    01/B    11/B    12/W
SHR 028/062 033/060 032/053 031/056 033/062 034/060 035/062
    00/U    13/W    32/W    11/B    11/B    12/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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