Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300930
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
330 AM MDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING. FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA
BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH SO EVEN
THOSE THAT DO SEE A SHOWER WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN ENOUGH
PRECIPITATION TO WET THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
WIDESPREAD. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A GOOD 20 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THE 80S WITNESSED WEDNESDAY. BY THIS EVENING THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE EXITED THE AREA ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR LOWS.

ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. PACIFIC MOISTURE
AND ENERGY TRAPPED IN THIS FLOW REGIME WILL BRING SOME ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER
DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE 70S FOR A VERY PLEASANT SPRING DAY.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A FAST ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PROVIDE A DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY IT WILL SWEEP A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. DOWNSLOPE FLOW
COMBINED WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
READINGS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. THE FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS WYOMING SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MAINTAIN
CURRENT HIGH CHANCE POPS BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE GREATLY NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AS IT
MOVES INLAND...THE ECMWF TAKES THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A MORE DOWNSLOPE AND DRIER PATTERN.
HOWEVER...THE GFS TAKES THE LOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA THEN
TOWARD THE IDAHO/UTAH/WYOMING BORDER RESULTING IN A COOL AND MOIST
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT OF THIS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE...WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR PRECIP CHANCES
AND TEMPERATURES. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCE WITH AN
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITION. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
30-35KTS ALONG AND EAST OF A KBHK-KMLS-KSHR LINE THROUGH 21Z WITH
WINDS DECREASING BY LATE EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA. HOOLEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 043/077 047/078 044/065 043/066 040/074 046/068
    3/W 00/U    00/B    22/T    32/T    22/T    34/T
LVM 064 035/073 040/073 038/066 036/068 036/079 039/068
    2/W 00/U    01/B    23/T    32/T    23/T    34/T
HDN 067 040/079 045/080 043/069 040/069 042/075 045/075
    2/W 00/U    00/B    22/T    32/T    22/T    34/T
MLS 067 042/077 047/075 045/065 039/064 040/070 044/072
    2/W 00/U    00/B    21/B    32/T    01/B    34/T
4BQ 065 039/077 045/080 043/070 043/062 042/069 043/069
    2/W 00/U    00/U    21/B    33/T    22/T    34/T
BHK 065 039/076 045/076 041/064 040/061 037/066 043/067
    2/W 00/U    00/B    21/B    33/T    01/B    34/T
SHR 061 036/073 041/074 040/066 039/062 040/067 040/065
    2/W 00/U    00/U    12/T    33/T    33/T    34/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.