Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 061529
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
929 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO LOWER THE
POPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT FROM BILLINGS AND ROUNDUP WESTWARD OVER
TO LIVINGSTON AND HARLOWTON FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WE DID KEEP A
LOW-END SHOWER CHANCE IN THOSE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPECT TO
LINGERING MOISTURE ALOFT...BUT THE BRUNT OF SHOWERS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY WILL BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF BILLINGS. RAINFALL TOTALS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST IN THE EKALAKA AND
BAKER AREAS WHERE SOME 0.50 AMOUNTS ARE VERY POSSIBLE. IT/S THAT
CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE FORCING WILL BE LONGEST-LIVED AND WHERE
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT IS GREATEST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR AN INCH BASED ON OBSERVED 12 UTC SOUNDINGS FROM RAPID
CITY AND BISMARCK AND LOWER 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AT BAKER THIS
MORNING. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A
LARGE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA BY THURSDAY AND
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE FOR
A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN
WYOMING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CURRENTLY...A JET STREAK OVER
WESTERN MONTANA WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION ACROSS OUR AREA IS
RESULTING IN A CONTINUOUS BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
FROM NORTHERN WYOMING INTO OUR CENTRAL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS
FOR PORTIONS OF CARBON...BIG HORN AND ALL OF YELLOWSTONE AND
MUSSELSHELL COUNTIES WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
NOON. THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND THIS COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL RESULT IN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AS FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...ATMOSPHERE IS MORE STABLE THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS AND
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER MENTION FROM THE EASTERN ZONES FOR TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW DIGS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ON THURSDAY TO GIVE OUR AREA
A BREAK IN THE PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS WYOMING AND THE DAKOTAS. SO BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND AREAS OUT
TOWARD THE DAKOTA BORDERS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...YESTERDAY WAS THE
WARMEST DAY WILL WE WILL SEE FOR AT LEAST A WEEK. A COOL EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL KEEP OUR READINGS
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO THE LOWER 60S AT BEST WITH EVEN CHILLIER
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 50S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...


OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE LATE
WEEK TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN EJECTING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP MUCH OF THE ENERGY IN
WYOMING AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA COINCIDENT WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS MOVING ACROSS. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH OF LIQUID ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL
WYOMING...WITH MAYBE UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MOUNTAINS ARE GOING TO
SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AS THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS INCREASE
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB CONTINUE TO NOT BE
OVERLY COLD...THEREFORE WHILE THE MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT TO SEE
SNOW...IT IS GOING TO BE A WETTER SNOW WITH LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS. THE FOOTHILLS FROM NYE TO RED LODGE COULD SEE 2 TO 3
INCHES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO THE WORK
WEEK AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MAIN
THROUGH MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOLER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND ONLY IN THE 40S FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY
WARMING BACK TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

A BAND OF SHOWERS IS SHIFTING EAST OF BILLINGS...WITH ANOTHER AREA
OF RAIN FROM THE SOUTH SPREADING OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA. BHK
WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR...WITH LOCAL MVFR NEAR SHR AND MLS. VFR
WILL PREVAIL TO THE WEST WITH LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOUNTAINS WILL
BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. NW WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS WILL IMPACT
SHR AND MLS WITH A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO REACH BHK AROUND 18Z.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS AT LVM THIS
EVENING. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060 040/055 038/049 037/044 036/051 035/060 040/066
    3/W 22/W    13/W    67/W    63/W    32/W    22/W
LVM 059 036/052 033/049 034/044 032/052 032/059 036/063
    2/W 33/W    35/W    66/W    54/W    33/W    33/W
HDN 059 039/058 040/054 037/046 035/053 033/061 039/067
    9/W 21/E    12/W    56/W    63/W    32/W    22/W
MLS 058 040/058 037/057 038/050 035/054 035/061 039/064
    6/W 41/B    11/E    45/W    52/W    21/B    22/W
4BQ 056 041/058 037/058 039/048 034/049 031/057 037/062
    7/W 42/W    12/W    46/W    64/W    31/B    22/W
BHK 058 041/055 034/058 035/049 032/049 031/057 034/059
    +/W 82/W    11/E    34/W    42/W    21/B    11/B
SHR 051 038/055 034/055 037/043 032/045 028/056 035/062
    +/W 42/W    24/W    57/W    75/W    42/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.