Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 190323
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
923 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED AND MOVED OUT OF OUR CWA AS
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW SPREADS IN BEHIND SHORTWAVE IN FAR EASTERN
MT...THE EXCEPTION BEING SOME LIGHT BANDED ACTIVITY FROM NEAR
ABSAROKEE TO RED LODGE AND BRIDGER WHICH SHOULD ALSO BE ENDING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE BECOMES DOMINANT. WINDS
WHICH WERE QUITE GUSTY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HAVE ALSO DECREASED
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ALSO AS PRESSURE RISE MAX HAS
SURGED SOUTH INTO WY. HAVE MADE SOME EVENING ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
AND WINDS TO SHOW THESE DECREASING TRENDS. WILL BE A COOL NIGHT
WITH UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR LOWS...COOLEST IN THE WEST NEAR
CENTER OF SFC RIDGE. SOME NW WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO
FAR IN OUR EAST EVEN AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR 0C. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH BILLINGS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
EASTERN MONTANA...IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTER KANSAS. THIS WILL GIVE
MAINLY CARTER COUNTY A CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL. ALSO...WITH THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...UPSLOPING WILL GIVE THE FOOTHILLS
AND MOUNTAINS A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A LITTLE AND THE
ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN A
LITTLE TIGHTER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME WHAT COOLER
TOMORROW..BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW EVENING. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. MONDAY
WILL BE QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AREA FOR MOST
OF THE WEEK AS RIDGE HOLDS TO OUR WEST WITH STRONG CLOSED UPPER
LOW CIRCULATION INTO THE MIDWEST. OVERALL...CONDITIONS LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY BEFORE SOME MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE TOWARD THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST BREAKS DOWN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY BY THE WEEKEND
INTRODUCING A SLIGHT INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. NO EXTREMES IN TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN...READINGS CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS. IN
FACT...THIS PATTERN CERTAINLY DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD IN
RECENT PAST AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY OUT OF THE EAST. THIS
WILL KEEP THE TEMPETURES ON THE COOLER SIDE AND HUMIDITIES
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. MOST CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST REVOLVED AROUND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERTURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCE AND MVFR CONDITION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND BIG HORN FOOTHILLS WHICH MAY AFFECT KLVM
AND KSHR THROUGH 06Z. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-40 MPH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 033/055 033/060 036/071 041/070 043/069 041/064 042/063
    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    12/W    23/W    33/W
LVM 028/052 031/061 035/073 038/072 039/069 038/063 037/061
    12/W    11/B    00/U    01/B    13/W    23/W    33/W
HDN 031/056 032/061 034/072 035/071 036/071 034/067 037/065
    10/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    02/W    22/W    33/W
MLS 034/054 031/058 034/070 036/068 038/068 036/064 037/064
    00/N    00/B    00/U    00/B    01/B    12/W    21/B
4BQ 033/053 029/056 031/069 033/067 036/068 035/063 033/064
    11/N    01/B    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/W    32/W
BHK 033/050 028/054 030/067 032/062 033/062 032/058 032/060
    12/W    00/B    00/B    00/U    11/B    12/W    21/B
SHR 032/051 029/056 032/067 036/068 037/069 037/062 037/063
    21/N    11/B    00/U    00/U    12/W    34/W    33/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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