Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 020953
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
353 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

FAIRLY UNEVENTFULL WEEKEND IN STORE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A FAST AND
MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT BUT WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN
BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S WITH POSSIBLY AN 80 DEGREE READING FOR A FEW AREAS.

STRONGER JET DYNAMICS STAY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A SMALL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF
COLORADO AND WYOMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL MAINLY STAY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING BUT THE
NORTHERN EDGE MAY BRUSH OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS ALONG THE
MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE FOR
THOSE AREAS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE 60S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
RUNS. THEY CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON THE GENERAL SOLUTION THE GFS
HAS BEEN PRESENTING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF A PACIFIC LOW
MOVING ON SHORE AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE SPECIFICS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GFS
ENSEMBLE WELL AS BETWEEN THE GFS...EC...AND GEM. WITH THE
INCREASING CONFIDENCE...HAVE INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY. ALSO THERE
IS SOME CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE ADDED
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.

THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH THE
AREA IN WESTERLY FLOW. WITH SOME LIFT AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE FOLLOW. THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN...AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD MOVE OFF THE TERRAIN INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BACK NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 60S. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 045/066 044/077 048/078 047/063 043/053 038/060
    0/B 11/B    11/B    22/T    43/T    44/W    33/W
LVM 074 036/066 038/075 043/075 041/060 038/050 033/058
    1/N 11/B    12/T    23/T    44/T    44/W    33/W
HDN 081 042/069 042/080 045/079 047/065 041/053 035/062
    0/B 11/B    21/B    12/T    43/T    44/W    32/W
MLS 080 045/067 043/075 049/078 050/066 042/054 037/061
    1/B 11/B    12/W    12/T    43/T    33/W    32/W
4BQ 080 044/067 044/073 047/076 049/064 043/054 035/061
    0/B 11/B    32/T    12/T    44/T    43/W    22/W
BHK 079 040/064 038/071 044/072 049/061 041/055 033/058
    0/B 21/B    12/T    11/N    44/T    43/W    33/W
SHR 077 043/065 043/071 043/073 045/061 040/053 033/057
    0/U 12/W    22/T    23/T    44/T    44/W    33/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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