Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 260927
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
327 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MOSTLY AS FORECAST WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE FOR THE LARGE-SCALE DETAILS. THE ELONGATED NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH FORM A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS THIS
MORNING AS JET ENERGY STARTS TO WORK INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
THIS LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WITH DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION
TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WAS IN EASTERN UTAH THIS EARLY MORNING AND
WILL WORK THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN COLORADO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BEST
DYNAMICAL FORCING CONTINUES OVER THE SAN JUANS AND WEST ELKS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE CLOSED LOW CREATES A STRONG AREA OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS SW COLORADO AS IT CURVES BACK INTO THE
MAIN TROUGH WALL. INSTABILITY WILL STILL DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
7500FT OR SO IN THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BUT OVERALL THE
9000FT SNOW LEVEL STILL LOOKS GOOD. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE NORTH HAS SOME INSTABILITY AND DECENT MOISTURE BUT LACKS UPPER
SUPPORT. CYCLONIC NORTH FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SCATTERED MORE OROGRAPHIC
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. FREEZING TEMPERATURES STILL A CONCERN
FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE EXITING LOW ON MONDAY WILL LIMIT SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN
COLORADO MOUNTAINS...MOST NUMEROUS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO SEE DRIER AIR AND WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

BY SUNSET MONDAY EVENING THE MAIN LOW SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVER OKLAHOMA...BUT MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED
ANOTHER BRIEF INCREASE IN PRECIP AS A TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER PUSHES ANOTHER "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS DISTURBANCE PUSHES A BAND OF PRECIP WEST
AND SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION
PROJECTED TO ACCOMPANY IT DIMINISHES AS THE BAND MOVES WEST OF A
LINE FROM KCAG TO KRIL TO KMTJ DURING THE DAY ON TUE.

A SHARP RIDGE WILL SPREAD DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS OVER THE
AREA TUE NIGHT AND WED. MODELS SHOW THIS RIDGE COLLAPSING TO THE
SOUTHEAST THU AS A TROUGH AND ITS COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE FRONT WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT
THROUGH SAT...WHILE GRADUALLY SAGGING TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE A BIT OF LIFT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN...SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR AND IFR RANGE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG PACIFIC STORM CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AZ
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST IN NEW MEXICO BY NOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
SNOW LEVELS TO DROP AS LOW AS 7500 FEET AT TIMES. MOUNTAINS WILL
BE OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE BRIEF OPEN VFR
WINDOWS BETWEEN WAVES OF RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ009-012-018-
     019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ010-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC



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