Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 302128
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
328 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

WEAK SHEAR AND ORGANIZED LIFT IS LACKING SO THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHER SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AT SUNSET. THE 12Z RAOB
SHOWS A HUGE DRY LAYER BELOW 400MB AND HARD TO IMAGINE MUCH OF ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND...WITH GUSTY WINDS MORE LIKELY.
PWAT ARE SITTING AT NEARLY HALF OF WHAT THEY SHOULD FOR LATE MARCH
AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THERE IS LITTLE RELIEF IN SITE. THE ENSEMBLE
ANOMALY PAGE AND ISENTROPIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SHOW THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING NEAR THE MEXICO AND CANADIAN
BORDERS WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER POSSIBILITY EVEN THOUGH WE
WILL HAVE FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND CONVECTION
POPPING OVER THE HILLS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT
OF SOUTHERN NV INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH ATTM. THE DYNAMIC TROP LAYER
PICKS THE WAVE OUT FAIRLY WELL AND SHOWS IT DROPPING ACROSS THE 4
CORNERS REGION BY MID MORNING AND BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
BY PEAK HEATING ON TUESDAY. STILL NOT OVERLY EXCITED ATTM BUT THE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK. LOWS SHOULD RECOVER A BIT THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS COMPARED TO THE COOLER READINGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TODAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WITH
HEATING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT...SLATED TO MOVE INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
INCREASE OVER WESTERN CO DURING THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH BE MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. A SECONDARY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SURFACE FEATURE MOVES OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY LATE THURSDAY THE MODELS START TO DIFFER IN TIMING OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST TIMING FOR A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE TO MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE. PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS RELATIVELY DRY
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION.

A COLDER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AND REDUCE
TEMPERATURES. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING OVER
MANY OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE DEVELOPS AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER TROUGH MAKES IT WAY TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIMING AND LOCATIONS DIFFER GREATLY BETWEEN
MODELS SO WILL NOT JUMP TO QUICKLY.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z TODAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY NEAR VIRGA. THE
LIMITED COVERAGE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KTEX TAF
AT THIS TIME. DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY SFC
WINDS AFTER 20Z AND DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...TGJT



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