Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 181605
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1005 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THOUGH SOME PATCHY
FOG LIKELY REMAINS. THE NEXT SHOT OF MOISTURE IS MAKING ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD FROM WYOMING WITH SNOW BEING REPORTED FROM
CRAIG...MEEKER...AND STEAMBOAT SPRINGS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
ASPEN...EAGLE AND RIFLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR
IS NAILING THE CURRENT PRECIP AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...AN
UPTICK IS EXPECTED FROM NOON ONWARDS AS MENTIONED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 857 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

ALLOWED FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE FOR THE CORTEZ AND NUCLA AREAS AS
TEMPS THERE ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING OR WILL BE SO SHORTLY. AS FAR
AS THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CONCERNED...EXTENDED IT BY 1 HOUR AS
REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE REDLANDS AREA OF THE GRAND
VALLEY...CONTINUE TO REPORT VIS LESS THAN 1/8 MILE AT TIMES. SOME
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BETWEEN FRUITA AND GRAND
JUNCTION.

REMAINING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MIDLEVELS MOISTENING UP IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE BEING PULLED IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST. SHORT TERM MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
PRECIP LOOKS TO PICK UP FROM ABOUT NOON ONWARDS AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE STARTS SHIFTING
PRECIP EASTWARD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE EXPIRED WINTER HEADLINES AND ADD THE DENSE FOR
ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR THE GRAND JUNCTION VICINITY. A BRIEF
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALLOWED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER
GRAND JUNCTION...MAINLY NEAR THE COLORADO RIVER. THIS CONDITION
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

TODAY IS THE DAY IN WHICH THE CLOSED LOW OVER COLORADO WILL
FINALLY EXIT TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER BEFORE IT LEAVES...THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL GIVE US ONE LAST HURRAH AND WRAP MOISTURE BACK AROUND
INTO THE WESTERN SLOPE OF CO TODAY. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS
BEEN ENHANCING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS WHICH
WILL START SHOWERS BACK UP ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. A
THIN OUTER BAND OF SHOWERS IS ALSO AFFECTING THE EASTERN UINTAS
RIGHT NOW THOUGH NOT IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE ACROSS THIS EASTERN UTAH
BAND OF PRECIP. AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST THIS
EVENING...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
IT. DECIDED TO ADD POSSIBILITY OF ISO THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST TODAY WITH PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO
SUPPORT SOME SHORT-LIVED CELLS.

SUNDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THOUGH ISO-SCT SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

RELATIVELY MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MOISTURE FOCUSED MOST ON THE CO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MTS.

STARTING TUE MODELS AGREE THAT A RIDGE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH WED
NIGHT...EXCEPT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
REMAIN DRAPED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND BACKED UP AGAINST THE
MOUNTAINS...SO SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. AS THE RIDGE PUSHES EAST...THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED
OUT OF THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT AND THU.

WHILE THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD BE RELIEVED OF INFLUENCE FROM
THE OLD COLD FRONT BY THU NIGHT...THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
SHOULD BE SHORTLIVED...AS THE RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT
BIG PLAYER IN WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
A STRONG LOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN CA THU
AND MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREAS FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIP
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THEN THE EC SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH WITH CLEARING FRI
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS HAS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CONTINUING THE
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

A SLOW MOVING LATE SEASON STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL AFFECT THE AREA
WITH PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND BRIEF LULLS AFTER EACH
DISTURBANCE PASSES. ALL AIRPORTS WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
AND/OR VSBY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES EAST
CONDITIONS WILL SHOW GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ009-010-
     012-017-018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ003-
     004-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC


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