Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 210532
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1132 PM MDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT MON APR 20 2015

THIS AFTERNOON...NO ORGANIZED FORCING IS SEEN IN NW FLOW BUT
PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE AT A RESPECTABLE 0.50 INCH. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ISOLATED STORMS FORMED FIRST OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STORMS TO MOVE OVER NEARBY VALLEYS
LATE AFTERNOON TO NEAR SUNSET. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN SHOWERS. SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN UNDER THE STRONGEST AFTERNOON CELLS.

MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END AROUND SUNSET THOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN MTNS UNTIL NEAR MIDNIGHT.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL.

A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OVER THE AREA ON TUE. LOOK FOR A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON TUE AS THE MOISTURE SLOWLY ERODES. THE
FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY...BUT MODERATE MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM MDT MON APR 20 2015

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. FOR STARTERS A FLATTENING RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER
EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO THROUGH WED. HOWEVER REMNANT ENERGY FROM AN
EJECTING BAJA LOW WILL PASS OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...
AND WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THUS AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON.

THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THEN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
THU AND INTO FRI. WHILE MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THE BIGGER
PICTURE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE MANY DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. THE
GFS IS ABOUT 6-9 HOURS FASTER THEN THE ECMWF...WITH PRECIPITATION
SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY MIDDAY THU AND PEAKING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF WITH THE BEST
PRECIPITATION NOT UNTIL LATE THU NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY.

THEN AS THIS TROUGH EXITS...MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND. AGAIN DETAILS HAVE YET
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT THIS SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO TRACK MORE FROM THE
WEST OR NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THU...THEN A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT MON APR 20 2015

SIMILAR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THOSE SEEN TODAY.
VFR FOR THE MOST PART WITH SOME CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. A QUICK PASSING SHOWER MAY AFFECT A FEW TAF SITES AFTER
18Z TUESDAY BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROLONGED PERIODS OF MVFR OR
LOWER. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND UNDER ANY OF THE
STRONG CONVECTION BUT ONLY EXPECT GUSTS OF AROUND 35 KTS. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO DISPERSE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/JOE
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGR



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