Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 030934
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
334 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER NEVADA AND UTAH. OUR AREA IS IN WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TODAY EXTENDING INTO THE
EVENING. THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY
CREATING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA BRINGING IN MORE SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. MONDAY EXPECT AFTERNOON ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN...EASTERN
HIGHLANDS AND TO AN LESSER EXTENT THE EASTERN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
LOOK FOR A REPEAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT BREEZY TO MODERATE WINDS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO MOVE INLAND OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WYATT

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE UPPER LOW SPLITS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON SPINNING OFF A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED LOW WHICH DIGS SOUTH
THROUGH WASHINGTON AND OREGON. ONCE AGAIN...THE MODELS SHOW
INCREASING SPREAD REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS IT DIGS SOUTH INTO NRN CALIFORNIA AND EAST
ACROSS NRN NEVADA. REGARDLESS OF THE SPREAD...THE MODELS SHOW AMPLE
MOISTURE WRAPPED UP WITH THE LOW AND WITH THE TRACK INITIALLY TO OUR
WEST AND THEN OUR SOUTH...SE IDAHO SHOULD BE IN A FAIRLY DECENT
POSITION FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST INTO
WYOMING SUNDAY MORNING. SOME DRYING IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER THE COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES
REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HUSTON

&&

.AVIATION...AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM NEVADA HAS HELPED TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SE IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE ADDITION OF AFTERNOON HEATING WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE SE HIGHLANDS AND ALONG A LINE
FROM MACKAY TO ISLAND PARK. PARTIAL DRYING AND STABILIZING
CONDITIONS FOLLOW OVERNIGHT. HUSTON &&

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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