Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 031848
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1248 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE FLOWING INTO ID FROM THE GREAT BASIN IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MTNS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. ACTIVITY
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ON MON...THE UPPER FLOW
TURNS MORE SW AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE PAC NW COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE MTNS. THIS
PATTERN WILL REPEAT ON TUE...WITH DECREASING ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN WED MORN...BUT THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OVER WA/OR...THE MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE EAST. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE FORECAST
THEME FOR LATER THIS WEEK STILLS LOOKS UNSETTLED. THE MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF ANY MAIN BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION AND TIMING THOSE OUT. THAT IS NOT UNEXPECTED IN THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN...ESPECIALLY WHEN POCKETS OF DRY AIR GET ENTRAINED
WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW. WITH THE COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM...THAT MEANS SOME HIGHER MOUNTAIN SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
WE DID PUSH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UP A BIT THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...BUT NOT TOO MUCH SINCE THERE IS STILL THAN UNKNOWN FACTOR
OF TIMING RAIN/SNOW BANDS AND ANY PERIODS OF DRIER WEATHER. WE MAY
STILL DRY OUT A BIT A WEEK FROM NOW...BUT WE`RE STILL THINKING SOME
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AGAIN DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THAT
IS EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING...WHEN WE LOSE HEATING
AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE WEAK SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH MOVES TO
THE EAST. STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
30KTS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE VCTS FOR ALL TAF SITES BUT WE MAY NEED TO
DO SOME REAL-TIME ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS
TRACK. TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME
MID CLOUDS OVERHEAD WE CAN`T RULE OUT SOME STRAY SHOWERS POPPING UP.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER REPEAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN...THE FOCUS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT
THAT DOESN`T MEAN SOMETHING DRIFTS OR DEVELOPS OVER THE SNAKE PLAIN.
KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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