Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 301936
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
136 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BY OR AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MARCH AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY.
MODELS SHOW SOME SOME MOISTURE WORKING UP FROM THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE WILL EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AS A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND AID IN
DEVELOPMENT THERE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
70S COMMON IN MANY AREAS.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES ARE ON THE SAME PAGE FOR THE VERY EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS A STRONG
STORM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE SO WE ARE EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD
TUESDAY...MODEL CONSISTENCY START TAKING A NOSE DIVE. WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING WINDS AND SHOWERS AND STORMS. COVERAGE THOUGH DEPENDS ON
THE POSITION OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A MORE NORTHERLY
COURSE...WHICH WOULD PULL MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS CANNOT MAKE UP ITS MIND. IT KEEPS
WAVERING BETWEEN A LOW PARKING ITSELF SOMEWHERE OVER
OREGON...WASHINGTON OR IDAHO. THE 6Z RUN MADE A BRIEF TREND TOWARD
THE EC BUT THAT APPEARS TO BE A ONE-RUN WONDER. OBVIOUSLY...THE GFS
WOULD BE A LOT COOLER AND WET ACROSS THE BOARD. THE ENSEMBLES OFFER
NO HELP AS THEY ARE SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS...ONE FAVORING THE EC AND
THE OTHER THE GFS. BASED ON ALL OF THIS...WE DIDN`T MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WHICH WAS TRENDING COOLER AND WET ALREADY
BEYOND TUESDAY. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS WILL END BY
SUNSET. VFR WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...THE WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP ALONG
WITH SOME CLOUDS PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH...MAINLY AFFECTING KPIH
AND KBYI. VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EVEN WITH MORE CLOUDS ARRIVING.
KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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