Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 281956
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
156 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION. ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END THURSDAY MORNING WITH
CLEARING SKIES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH MANY FOLKS SEEING 70S FOR HIGHS. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER AND A RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S FOR
FRIDAY.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUE NIGHT. 500MB LONG WAVE
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN UNTIL THE LAST 24 HOURS WHEN A SPLIT IN THE FLOW MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH THE GEM STATE BETWEEN THE TWO FORKS OF THE SPLIT. VERY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW COULD ALLOW ADVECTION NORTHWARD OF SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...OR A QUIET AND DRY PERIOD AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY WITH THE OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TO GENERATE
SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN A DIURNAL PATTERN...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE ECMWF AT FIRST HAS MORE PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY BY
SUN...BUT THEN THE GFS HAS MORE FOR MON NIGHT. THIS INDICATES IT IS
ALL SHORT-WAVE DRIVEN AND THUS THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST AND IS SUBJECT TO QUITE A BIT OF CHANGE. FRI NIGHT AND SAT
HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE. TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEG F
ABOVE NORMAL POSSIBLE FOR HIGHS ON THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF THE
DRIER-AT-THAT-TIME GFS IS CORRECT. STRONG TEMPERATURE SWINGS FOR THE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO WARMER THAN NORMAL.
WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW...WOULD EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUED CIG AND VSBY UNLIMITED UNTIL WED AFTERNOON
WITH INCOMING DRY COLD FRONT. LIGHT WIND UNTIL THEN AS WELL...THOUGH
APPROACHING LOW MAY KEEP EASTERLY WIND FOR MUCH OF WED INSTEAD OF
THE MORE NORMAL WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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