Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 131950
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
150 PM MDT MON APR 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL ADVANCE INTO THE NW COAST TONIGHT AND ACROSS SRN IDAHO
TUESDAY...EXITING THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. VERY STRONG
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SE IDAHO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND HENCE A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN FROM POCATELLO THROUGH BURLEY INCLUDING THE
SOUTH-CNTRL HIGHLANDS. THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
VIGOROUS AS IT LIFTS INTO THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/IDAHO FALLS
AREA AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THAT REGION.
FALLING SNOW LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 3 TO 7
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE ERN HIGHLANDS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE
5500 FEET MSL HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE SE HIGHLANDS FOR THIS
SPRING-TIME EVENT. THE MODELS WERE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW (1 TO 2 INCHES) FROM IDAHO FALLS TO POCATELLO
TUESDAY EVENING AS CONVERGING WINDS ENHANCE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION
IN THAT REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS ITEM FOR POTENTIAL
IMPACTS AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEAR. DRIER CONDITIONS TRAIL THE EXITING
LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS SE OF THE
REGION. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MODELS CONSISTENT
IN DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGING INTO PAC NW THURSDAY NIGHT AS CUTOFF LOW
DROPS TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY AND STABLE WEATHER...BUT WILL WEAKEN AS A
SHORT WAVE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. NO MAJOR INCONSISTENCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE...ALL
SUGGESTING THIS WILL BE FAIRLY FAST-MOVING AND SHOULD RESULT IN
LITTLE PRECIP ACCUMULATION. ECMWF SHOWS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING AS IT
PASSES INTO WY/MT AND BRIEFLY SHOWING A CLOSED CIRCULATION IN WY
SUNDAY MORNING. THUS ECMWF IS WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND SINCE
IT IS MODELING WRAP-AROUND PRECIP OVER OUR EASTERN HIGHLANDS...THUS
MAINTAINING SOME WEAK CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY. FORECAST BECOMES DRIER
AT THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WHILE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WA/OR
COAST.  HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY UNDER BROAD UPPER RIDGING
BUT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
NOTABLY FOR PIH AND IDA. MODELS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE LATE
TOMORROW MORNING. CROSS-SECTIONS FROM VARIOUS MODELS SHOW WINDS NEAR
50 KTS AT AROUND 2000 FT AGL STARTING AROUND 09Z. THIS MAKES
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT
AROUND MID-MORNING WITH BYI AND SUN SEEING BEST CHANCES FOR VCSH IN
THE LATTER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.  HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
IDZ017-021-022.

WIND ADVISORY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING IDZ020.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 5500 FEET MSL TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING IDZ023-025.
&&

$$









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