Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 030259
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
859 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...MINOR UPDATES THIS EVENING. TRIMMED THE CHANCE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE UTAH BORDER....LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
STORMS ARE MOVING MORE EAST THAN NORTH...PLUS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE COOLING SHARPLY AND REDUCING THE INSTABILITY. ALSO LOWERED THE
HUMIDITY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY. THERE WERE SOME
HUMIDITIES AROUND 10 TO 11 PERCENT AROUND CHALLIS TODAY. SHOULD BE
A LITTLE HIGHER SUNDAY. RS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 134 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL SET OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AS MOISTURE CREEPS BACK ACROSS THE UT BORDER.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVE IN THE UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS. THE PATTERN REPEATS ON SUNDAY...BUT MORE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. STILL
EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO BE IN THE MTNS. BY MON...THE UPPER
FLOW TURNS SW IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE PAC NW
COAST. SOME OF THE MOISTURE IS CUT OFF...BUT THE SW FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO TAP INTO THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER NV/UT. EXPECTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE MTNS MON AFTN THROUGH TUESDAY.
HEDGES

LONG TERM...TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. ALL OF THE
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP TRENDING TOWARD A SLOW MOVING STORM ACROSS
THE WEST NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ESPECIALLY WHEN
IT COMES TO WHERE THE SPLIT FLOW TAKES THE SOUTHERN LOW...BUT THE
OVERALL THEME IS WETTER AND COOLER WHICH MEANS WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME HIGHER MOUNTAIN SNOW AT TIMES. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT WITH
PLENTY OF ROOM TO GO WITH MORE PRECIPITATION AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. ONE THE THINGS TO WATCH WITH THIS TYPE OF STORM IS
WHEN AND WHERE DRY POCKETS ROTATE THROUGH THE PATTERN. FOR NOW...WE
DIDN`T TRY TO TIME ANYTHING LIKE THAT OUT AS IT WOULD BE FUTILE UNTIL
WE GET MUCH CLOSER TO THE EVENT. KEYES

AVIATION...WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR MOISTURE TO SLOWLY INCREASE
ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO...WHICH IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON.
WE ARE EXPECTING VFR WEATHER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL
SHOWERS/STORMS. WITH MOST OF THE ACTION IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WE CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE VCTS FOR KIDA...KPIH AND KBYI
THROUGH EVENING. WE WILL HAVE TO MAKE REAL-TIME ADJUSTMENTS IN CASE
ANYTHING DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE AIRPORTS AND/OR OVER THE PLAIN. FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WE KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR
THOSE SITES ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE AS MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVERHEAD.
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A REPEAT WITH A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE
INCLUDING ENCROACHING ON KSUN. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY OVERALL..
WITH ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING ANY STORMS BOTH DAYS.
SMALL HAIL IS ALSO A SMALL POSSIBILITY. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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