Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 222001
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
201 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN FALLING AT MCCALL
WITH SURFACE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS STANLEY. TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
STEEP AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THAT DISTURBANCE AS AS IT CROSSES THE PAN HANDLE AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. LIGHTING ALREADY REPORTED IN NEVADA AND UTAH WITH LOW
PRESSURE CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE
STRETCHING/SPLITTING TROUGH CROSS CALIFORNIA. THAT BAND OF
CONVECTION SHOULD APPROACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EACH BRANCH WILL SHOW  LITTLE DIFFERENT
TIMING. THE DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH BRANCH WILL BE NEAR ISLAND PARK
BY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING EAST...A PERIOD OF LITTLE
ACTIVITY FOLLOWS UNTIL THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...EXPECT THAT DISTURBANCE
PROGRESS TOWARDS COLORADO THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...LEAVING A TRACK
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS. SO FAR A SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED FROM
THESE STORMS...BUT THE TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.5 C/KM COULD
BRING SOME SMALL HAIL...POSSIBLY WITH SOME ACCUMULATION ON ROAD
SURFACES. THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FRIDAY AND COULD BE
CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL IN THE SNAKE PLAIN. THE LAST DISTURBANCE IN
THE SERIES SHOULD BE SATURDAY...SNOW LEVELS EVEN DIP TO AROUND 5500-
6000 FEET OVERNIGHT AS IT PASSES. RS

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PERIOD SHOULD START OFF WITH COOL BELOW NORMAL BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEK WITH A
WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.   EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND HAVE
VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SUN TAF BUT THINK WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH
AWAY AT BYI...PIH AND IDA.   MAY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



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