Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 300956
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
356 AM MDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LAST BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO EARLY THIS
MORNING AND HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH NOON IN UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS. SHOWERS SHOULD END THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. EXPECT
WINDS TO DIE DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN FRIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTH BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH.
GK

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
ON SUNDAY WITH A MINOR WAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW SETTING OFF MAINLY MTN
TSTMS. UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO TURN SWRLY ON MON AS AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE PAC NW. SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN HIGHLANDS MON AFTN. BY TUE...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
THE GFS PLACES THE UPPER LOW OFF THE WA COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS THE UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHERN BC. HOWEVER BOTH SOLUTIONS FAVOR
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE AFTN. BY WED...THE
DIFFERENCES BECOME EVEN GREATER. THE GFS IS SLOW TO MOVE THE UPPER
LOW AND PLACES IT OVER SOUTHERN OR BY WED AFTN. THE GFS HAD THE
UPPER LOW OVER ALBERTA. THE ECMWF PLACES MOST OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF
THE FCST AREA...WHILE THE GFS PUTS PRECIP ACROSS ALL OF THE MTN
AREAS. BY THU...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER LOW WELL NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND THE PRECIP MAINLY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. THE
GFS HAS THE UPPER LOW NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN OR...AND
PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. ISOLD
ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE MTN AREAS. WILL TRY TO
MAINTAIN SOME MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPS WILL
TURN COOLER WED AND THU. HEDGES
&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THRU
TONIGHT. GUSTY SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SETTLE DOWN THIS AFTN.
HEDGES


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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