Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 111709
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1109 AM MDT SAT APR 11 2015

.UPDATE...LATE UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADJUST WINDS. WINDS IN
PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN HAVE PUSHED ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST
LEVELS AND ARE NUDGING UP AGAINST ADVISORY THRESHOLDS NEAR
POCATELLO. WINDS CURRENTLY ABOVE ALL FORMS OF GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH IS LEADING TO SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE WINDS LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT. WILL BE A CLOSE CALL FOR
ADVISORY IN LOWER SNAKE PLAIN BUT BELIEVE WE CAN HOLD OFF ON
HEADLINE FOR NOW AND JUST LEAVE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN COVERED. WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND RESERVE POTENTIAL
FOR FURTHER UPWARD NUDGES IN WIND SPEEDS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...POPS LOOK TO BE IN SHAPE TODAY WITH SHOWERS
FOCUSED MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST INSTABILITY STILL OVER
CENTRAL MTNS AND WILL HOLD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT REGION. DMH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM MDT SAT APR 11 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD FRONT PUSHING ON SHORE OVER WASHINGTON OFF
THE PACIFIC. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS COLD FRONT MOVING OVER
OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW FOR THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS ABOVE 6500 FEET. LIGHT VALLEY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY FOR OUR NORTHERN AREAS. THE MAIN
IMPACT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE WINDS. WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY FOR THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO UNTIL 3 AM
TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH ESPECIALLY
FOR THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS.

SUNDAY MORNING EXPECT LIGHT LINGERING PRECIPITATION FOR THE UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN
ON SUNDAY. EXPECT OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. WYATT

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. FOR THIS FORECAST....SAW
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE COMING IN ON
TUESDAY...BUT RATHER A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR
MALAD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO BE
GREATER AND HAVE NUDGED MOUNTAIN SNOW AMOUNTS UP CLOSER TO 2 TO 5
INCHES IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. COLD AIR WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
SHOULD LOWER SNOW LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON CLOSER TO 4500-5000 FEET
ELEVATION RANGE. STILL LOOKS TO BE A WINDY DAY IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER...OTHERWISE A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S FOLLOWING A BRIEF DIP TUESDAY TO
THE 40S. RS

AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE ARCO DESERT NEAR 21Z...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
PRETTY STRONG OVER NIGHT...POSSIBLY UNTIL SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT SUNDAY IDZ020.

&&

$$






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