Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 180520
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1120 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED TO MODIFY POPS BASED ON 00Z GUIDANCE...FOCUSING
HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND UPPER ARKANSAS
AND CONTDVD NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. CUT BACK ON POPS TO THE SOUTH
BUT WILL LEAVE ISOLD-SCT CHANCES OUT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 844 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINTER HEADLINES BASED ON
OBS...TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
AND MOST PERSISTENT PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE MTS NORTH OF HGWY
50 TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SO...HAVE CANCELED THE ADVISORIES FOR THE
SANGRES AND WETS. EXTENDED PIKES PEAK AND THE SAWATCH TIL 00Z SUN
SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TOMORROW. TELLER MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE EXTENDED BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW THE BAND OF SNOW NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
SET UP...WILL LEAVE THE ENDING TIME FOR SAT MORNING FOR NOW. HRRR
HAS MOST OF THE HEAVIER QPF NORTH OF TELLER WHILE THE RAP AND NAM
HAVE IT DIRECTLY OVER TELLER. SO...AMOUNTS ARE MOST UNCERTAIN OVER
THE PIKES PEAK AREA BUT THE GOING ADVISORY COVERS THAT HAZARD FOR
NOW. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE SW QUAD OF THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WAS WRAPPING DRY AIR UP INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CO EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF PCPN AND EVEN
CLOUD COVER FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. BEFORE THE DRY AIR MOVED
IN...HEAVY SNOW WAS REPORTED OVER MANY OF THE AREA MTS AS WELL AS
THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN...ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ALL ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR. CLOUD ENHANCEMENT WAS OCCURRING
AS OF 3 PM OVER THE S MTS...SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH. FARTHER
EAST...DRY AIR PUSHED INTO THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE AND HELPED TO
PUSH THE SEVERE THREAT N AND NE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STRUGGLED
ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE ROBBED
LOW LEVEL ENERGY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE UPPER LOW
GO. MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT IT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH INTO
CENTRAL COLORADO THIS EVENING...THEN EDGE DUE EAST THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE
CUSTOMERS SCRATCHING THEIR HEADS...ALL MODELS INCLUDING THE HI-RES
OFFERINGS SHOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPING OVER THE PALMER DVD AND
RAMPART RANGE...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL MTS...N SANGRES AND
WETS...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT
LOOK AS SIGNIFICANT NOW AS THEY DID 12 HRS AGO...AND HANDLING OF
THE HIGHLIGHTS WAS EXCEPTIONALLY TRICKY. DECIDED TO PUSH ALL
ENDING TIMES OF HIGHLIGHTS TO 12Z TOMORROW MORNING...AND CONVERTED
SOME OF THE ONGOING WARNINGS TO ADVISORIES. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POP AND HIGHLIGHT GRIDS WILL OCCUR UNDOUBTEDLY. AS FOR
TEMPS...FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND HIGH
VALLEYS WILL MAKE FOR A COLD NIGHT...AS WELL AS MODIFYING THE MAX
TEMP TOMORROW DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TOMORROW
IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS...50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR THE E PLAINS...WITH AREAS THAT RECEIVED EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER
ON THE LOWER END. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

OLD UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.
ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL SPREAD ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE MTS/PALMER
DIVIDE SATURDAY EVENING...AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL BE THAT HEAVY...BUT A COUPLE INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MTS AND PIKES PEAK REGION WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH 1-2 ACROSS THE
PALMER DIVIDE. IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...SO THERE IS ALWAYS A
CHANCE FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW...BUT THINK THESE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED. MEANWHILE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
RAIN ACROSS THE SE PLAINS EARLY BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE SUN
MORNING. WINDS REALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY BEHIND
THE SYSTEM WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE
PLAINS. FORTUNATELY MANY PLACES HAVE HAD SOME RAIN...WHICH SHOULD
MINIMIZE BLOWING DUST CONCERNS SOME...AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM REACHING CRITICAL
LEVELS WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER REINFORCING NORTHERLY SURGE MOVES THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ENHANCE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT. GFS SPREADS THESE
SHOWERS EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS THOUGH
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN. WESTERN U.S UPPER RIDGE
TRANSLATES EASTWARD FOR TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS STAYING MORE CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS. AGAIN...MAINLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.  UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER CO FOR WEDNESDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY INTO THE PLAINS THURS AND FRI AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES
TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN.  LOTS OF VARIABILITY BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS ON TIMING...BUT BOTTOM LINE IS FOR INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SPREADING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THE CONTDVD REGION BY LATE WEEK.  TEMPERATURES REBOUND ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THOUGH SOUTHEAST FLOW ADVECTS HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO THE
PLAINS BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES...THIS SHOULD HELP DEVELOP A DRY LINE AND PUSH IT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAIN...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO ITS EAST
THURS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...IF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CAN RETURN...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM...THESE DETAILS ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA SPINNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING AND DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD. UPPER LOW HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY. CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY VFR
ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
PRODUCING POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS FROM 06Z SATURDAY TO 06Z SUNDAY. AS IT DOES SO...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FLIGHT AREA...RESULTING
IN AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND POCKETS OF LIFR CONDITIONS
UNDER THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT ANY OF
THE TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KCOS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ059-063-
066-081.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060-
061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...LW


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