Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 311837
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1237 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PER COORDINATION WITH LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES...HAVE UPGRADED
EXISTING FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON UNTIL
7 PM WEDNESDAY. THIS INCLUDED THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE PLAINS
ADJACENT TO THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE ALSO ADDED THE REST OF THE
PLAINS ALL THE WAY TO THE KANSAS BORDER TO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FROM NOON UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY. WHILE I WAS IN THERE...LOADED
IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS FOR TODAY JUST A BIT. REINITIALIZED FRONT
END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...ANOTHER TASTE OF SUMMER...

ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF SE CO TODAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD AND SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE E DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY...AND WITH H7 TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 7 DEGREES C THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS...EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP 80 DEGREES OVER MUCH
OF THE SE PLAINS. THIS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS
FOR THE PLAINS. BEST SHOT OF ANOTHER RECORD WILL BE IN THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...WHERE KALS HAS SEEN A STRING OF RECORD-BREAKING DAYS THIS
UNUSUALLY WARM MARCH. WE CAN SAFELY SAY THAT MARCH WILL GO OUT LIKE
A LAMB.

AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST...WILL SEE A WEAK WAVE AHEAD OF A PACNW
TROUGH MOVE INTO WRN CO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET OFF A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TS OVER THE MTS BY MID-AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS FOCUSING THE BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE LA GARITAS AND SAWATCH RANGE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
A COUPLE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PRETTY MUCH ANY OF THE MT AREAS.
LOWLANDS SHOULD STAY DRY. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL STAY WARM
WITH ONE MORE WARM DAY EXPECTED ON WED. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY...

...SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT...

WEATHER WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THIS
PERIOD. THE FIRST CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR OVER QUITE A BIT OF THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THEN A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THU
WHICH COULD BRING SOME PRECIP...INCLUDING SNOW...TO THE AREA
MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WED...

LEE TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE
CO/KS BORDER BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW QUITE DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND THE PLAINS EAST OF THE MTNS TO THE KLHX/KIM
AREAS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
ABOVE MENTIONED REGIONS FROM NOON WED INTO EARLY WED EVENING.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE QUITE WARM OVER THE AREA WED. MAX TEMP IN THE
U70S/L80S ARE LIKELY MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH 60S VALLEYS. VERY
ISOLD TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER THE MTNS
WITH SOME HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON.

WED NIGHT A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS AND THIS WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER INTO THE REGION WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE PALMER DVD. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE C MTNS.

THU...

2NDRY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE MID
AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE C MTNS AND PALMER DVD AREAS BY AFTERNOON. IN
ADVANCE OF THIS 2NDRY SURGE...THE WINDS OVER THE RATON MESA REGION
MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST...AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY BECOME A CONCERN FOR THE WALSENBURG/TRINIDAD/KIM REGIONS ONCE
AGAIN ON THIS DAY. IN ADDITION...THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL LIKELY
SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS AND ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THIS REGION THU AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS WILL VARY AS THE PALMER DVD AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S WHILE THE RATON MESA REGION COULD
SEE HIGHS IN THE L70S.

BY THU NIGHT...THE 2NDRY SURGE WILL MAKE IT INTO NEW MEXICO. PRECIP
WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DVD.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY GET BELOW FREEZING OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS AND
SNOW IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WARM GROUND...NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS ON PAVED SURFACES ARE LIKELY. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES.

SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION THU NIGHT.

OVERALL...THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP (SNOW AND/OR
RAIN) THU NIGHT WILL BE OVER THE C MTNS...THE PALMER DVD...THE NE
SECTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS...AND POSSIBLY THE WET MTN REGION. OTHER
AREAS MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP.

FRI...

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRI MORNING...OTHERWISE
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH COOLER MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS BY FRI
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S PLAINS...WITH 50S
VALLEYS.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY. WE MAY SEE ANOTHER WX
SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. TEMPS
WILL RECOVER WITH 60S PLAINS SAT...AND 70S TO AROUND 80F SUN AND
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL OFF A BIT BY TUESDAY. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FLIGHT AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FLOW IS GENERALLY DRY BUT A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS
WORKING INTO THE FLIGHT AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET.
PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. INCREASING WESTERLY WIND FLOW OVER FLIGHT
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. SPOTTY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS...INCLUDING
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE REGION WED AFTERNOON...AND A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THE I-25
CORRIDOR REGION AND CROWLEY...OTERO AND EASTERN LAS ANIMAS
COUNTIES FOR WED AFTERNOON.

CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR MAY ONCE
AGAIN REDEVELOP OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND POSSIBLY THE RATON
MESA REGION ON THU AFTERNOON.

PLEASE SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
REGARDING THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ224-
226>233.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ234>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW
FIRE WEATHER...HODANISH



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