Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 230552
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1152 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

UPDATED TO END PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL BUT THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 2 AM.
NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.  MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FOR THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT BASED ON HIGH-RES MODEL TRENDS.  SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS ALONG
WITH THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG DOWN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS EVENING. EXPECT
MOST ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE
POPS...TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPING OVER
PRIMARILY EASTERN LOCATIONS BY LATER TONIGHT.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SEVERAL HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS AS WELL AS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO/COLORADO BORDER.
IN ADDITION...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BASICALLY RUNNING NEAR LATE
APRIL CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER SEVERAL LOCATIONS.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS AND METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NOTED INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE AREA.  IN ADDITION...HAVE DEPICTED AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF MORE
ORGANIZED STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EL PASO COUNTY INTO
KIOWA COUNTY FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  WFO PUEBLO
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND TWO INCHES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS DURING THE SHORT-TERM
WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
THU NIGHT...THEN WEAKENS AND EDGES TO THE EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE DAY FRI. THE UPPER FEATURE TRACKING DIRECTLY OVER THE
STATE WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR AN UNSETTLED DAY...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT A FAIRLY WARM
DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND AFTN THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY...TEMPORARY RIDGING OVER THE STATE AS THE NEXT BIG PACIFIC
TROUGH BEGINS TO GATHER STRENGTH. SW FLOW ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
INCREASES...PROVIDING FOR WARMER MAX TEMPS AS WELL AS AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE INTO WESTERN CO. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MAINLY TIED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR THE E
PLAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE BEING CONSISTENT ON
DEEPENING THE PAC TROUGH ON SUN...THEN BRINGING A CLOSED LOW DOWN
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO NEW MEXICO SUN NIGHT. THIS LOW IS
TRENDING MORE TOWARDS A CLASSIC ABQ LOW POSITIONING...BUT THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE MODELS TO BE WRONG. HOWEVER...IF
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT...IT WILL END UP BEING VERY WET ACROSS
THE CWA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE E MTS AND I25 CORRIDOR
RECEIVING THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE. THIS WILL PUT THE LATEST
MITIGATION EFFORTS ACROSS THE WALDO BURN SCAR TO A TEST. DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING...TEMPS MAY STILL WARM TO AROUND 70 F FOR THE PLAINS
ON SUNDAY PRIOR TO THE REAL PCPN BEGINNING...BUT BY MONDAY MAX
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE 60S. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES AND OUT OF THE AREA MON
NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE US STARTING TUE...BRINGING PCPN CHANCES TO AN END AND
USHERING IN A WARMING TREND. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S ON
TUE...AND 70S FOR WED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING NEAR BOTH THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...
ANTICIPATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...77


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