Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 170333
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
933 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH TOMORROW
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND 00Z GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE SVR THREAT
IS OVER FOR NOW...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME ISOLD TS OVER THE
SE PLAINS TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING SOME DRY AIR TO PUSH INTO SE
CO TOMORROW...BUT THERE WILL BE SCT SHOWERS AROUND IN THE MORNING.
MAIN AREA TO WATCH THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE THE UPPER ARKANSAS AND
GUNNISON VALLEY...WHERE SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A PERSISTENT SNOW
BAND DEVELOPING. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 543 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE TELLER COUNTY AND NORTHERN FREMONT
COUNTY IN A WINTER STORM WARNING. MULTIPLE BANDS OF PRECIP
EXPECTED TO ROTATE IN FROM THE SE TONIGHT...WITH VARIOUS MODELS
SHOWING .7 TO 1.4 INCHES OF QPF. WITH COOLING TEMPS AFTER SUNSET
EXPECT ROADS TO ICE OVER...LEADING TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IN THE
WARNED AREAS. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 423 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CANCEL THE RED FLAG FOR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE VALLEY AND HUMIDITY IS
NO LONGER CRITICAL. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AGAIN ON FRIDAY THOUGH THIS IS DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS OVER THESE AREAS TONIGHT...

...MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN EL PASO AND
KIOWA COUNTIES ON FRIDAY...

STILL A HIGHLY DYNAMIC FORECAST AS MODELS HONE IN ON TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION.
MODELS BOBBLE THE UPPER LOW SOUTHWARD A BIT THIS EVENING...THEN BACK
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CO/NM BORDER TONIGHT AS ENERGY ROTATES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS CO.  THEN IT MAKES
STEADIER PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL CO ON FRIDAY.
ALREADY SEEING ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND NRN NM AS
THE NEXT IMPULSE APPROACHES.  HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS
TREND FAIRLY WELL.  WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS FILL IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...AND I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 6000-6500 FEET.  SNOW LEVELS MAY ACTUALLY RISE A BIT FOR THE
LOWER EASTERN SLOPES AS STRONG WAA OCCURS OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD
CAUSE A SWITCH BACK TO RAIN AT KCOS OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...MTN AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW AND HAVE EXPANDED ADVISORIES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.  GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
EVENINGS ROUND...CONCERNED THAT PORTIONS OF TELLER COUNTY COULD HIT
WARNING CRITERIA...THOUGH DON`T THINK IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
ACROSS THE ZONE TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE.  CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY COULD BE
IN A SIMILAR BOAT...SO THESE AREAS WILL BE THE ONES TO WATCH
CLOSELY. MEANWHILE...MODELS SHOW DEFORMATION BAND SNOW SPREADING
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
FRIDAY.  HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND ADVISORIES INTO THE LA GARITAS WHERE
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE APPROACHING THE 6-12 INCH RANGE.  STILL SOME
QUESTION OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUANS THOUGH...COULD SEE A COUPLE
INCHES FALL THERE TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES FALLING ON
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW WRAPS DEFORMATION BAND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE REGION.  CONTEMPLATED AN ADVISORY FOR THIS REGION...BUT
AM COMING UP SHY OF THE 6-12 INCHES NEEDED FOR A WINTER WX
ADVISORY...THOUGH CERTAINLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THE LOW COULD RESULT IN HEAVIER AMOUNTS FOR THIS REGION.
STICKING TRUE TO THE GRIDS FOR NOW AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS
REASSESS.

AS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE PLAINS...APPEARS
TIMING OF THE INITIAL WAVE THIS AFTERNOON WAS TOO QUICK FOR THE LOW
LEVEL  MOISTURE RETURN...AND NICE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED AND PUSHED EASTWARD INTO KANSAS.  HOWEVER AS SURFACE WINDS
HAVE VEERED MORE EASTERLY DUE TO FALLING SFC PRESSURES ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...40S AND LOWER 50 DEW POINTS HAVE PULLED WESTWARD INTO THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  ACTIVITY INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO MAY STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS.  OVERNIGHT...LATEST HRRR HINTS AT
ANOTHER ROUND CLIPPING BY BACA COUNTY DURING THE 8Z TO 09Z
TIMEFRAME...AND EVEN SOME SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS FAR WEST
AS THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  SO THOUGH MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS EVENING...CAN`T RULE OUT A LOW GRADE
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS EVEN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO BE MORE
ELEVATED.  TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST
CO...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EVEN IN THE MORNING...AND
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP GIVEN THE MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE LOW. NAM12 SHOWS UP TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS DURING THE MORNING...SO COULD
HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.  BY
AFTERNOON...DRY AIR SPREADS INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS SURFACE LOW
LIFTS NORTHWARD.  THIS PUTS THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY ALONG THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
NORTHEAST EL PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES.  THESE AREAS ARE OUTLOOKED FOR
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT TOMORROW...AND THIS LOOKS ON TARGET.  COULD
SEE THIS MARGINAL THREAT SLIPPING SOUTHWARD A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
STRONG MORNING CONVECTION.  BUT AS DRY AIR EXPANDS NORTHWARD...SO
DOES THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LAS ANIMAS...BACA...BENT...PROWERS... AND OTERO COUNTIES.
THE MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TO WET
FUELS TONIGHT OVER THESE SAME ZONES.  GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...HAVE
NOT GONE OUT WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...BUT IF PRECIPITATION
DOESN`T MATERIALIZE ACROSS A WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AREA ACROSS THESE
REGION...THEN LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO HOIST A RED FLAG WARNING.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT OVER THE
PST 24 HRS...BUT STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PLACEMENT
AND PATH OF THE UPPER LOW. FRIDAY NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BE CENTERED RIGHT OVER COLORADO...THEN OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS IT WILL WOBBLE A BIT BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING THE STATE VIA THE
EASTERN BORDER. THIS PATTERN WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MTS...ESPECIALLY
THE CONTDVD...WILL GET THE BRUNT OF SNOWFALL...MAINLY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THEREFORE...ONGOING WINTER HIGHLIGHTS RUNNING THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY LOOK REASONABLE. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL THEN TAPER OVER OVER THE
DAY SATURDAY AS TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM AND THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND TEMPS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY COLD WITH MIN TEMPS
IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND MAX TEMPS SATURDAY IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM WEAKENS AND EXITS TO THE EAST
LATE SATURDAY...WITH BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT THEN SETTLING IN ACROSS THE
STATE. A COUPLE OF UPPER SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN ACROSS
THE STATE ON BOTH DAYS...KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
THE CWA IN PLACE. LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE PLAINS...WITH MAX TEMPS BOTH
DAYS HOVERING IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 F.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW FOR WHAT HAPPENS
BEYOND MONDAY...THOUGH LONG RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON THE
QUESTION MARK. A TEMPORARY RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE DESERT SW STARTING
TUE...HELPING TO LOWERING PCPN CHANCES AS WELL AS BOOSTING MAX TEMPS
FOR THE PLAINS BACK INTO THE 70S. TWO SEPARATE UPPER CLOSED LOW
SYSTEMS APPROACH STARTING WED NIGHT...ONE OVER THE PAC NW AND THE
OTHER OVER S CA...BUT THIS PATTERN WILL MOST LIKELY GO THROUGH
MULTIPLE ADJUSTMENTS BEFORE THEN. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 356 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

CURRENTLY...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS AS WELL AS FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE ROUGHLY 7000 FT...IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED
DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOWER CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE SW QUAD TO THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...BRINGING WAVES OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW...HEAVY AT
TIMES...TO THE MTS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KPUB AND KALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS. KCOS IS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO IFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...THEN BRIEFLY DROP DOWN INTO LIFR AFTER 11Z TOMORROW
MORN. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MT PASSES WILL
REMAIN IFR TO LIFR. MOORE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ059-062-
063-074-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ077>079-084.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
072-073-080-082.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COZ076-
081.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ066.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE


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