Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 161630
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1030 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED TO BUMP UP TIMING OF RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY SINCE CONDITIONS ARE HITTING CRITERIA NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

ONE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA NOW. SNOW LEVELS HAVE
DROPPED TO AROUND 6500 FEET AND HAS PRODUCED AROUND TO 2 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF TELLER AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES.
HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTH BY THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A LULL TO THE PRECIPITATION OVER
THE AREA...THEN A SECOND WAVE WILL LIFT UP THIS AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT SNOW IS ALREADY
ONGOING...HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING OF VARIOUS WINTER WEATHER
HAZARDS TO THE CURRENT TIME. THOUGH THESE AREAS SHOULD EXPECT
WAVES OF SNOW...SO THERE WILL BE LULLS AT TIMES AS WELL. THE
HEAVIER SNOW STILL LOOKS LIKE IT COMES IN THIS EVENING. ALSO WILL
BE ASSESSING NEED FOR A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
LA GARTIAS IN A THE FUTURE PACKAGE ISSUANCE AS THIS AREA MAY BE
IMPACTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

THERE ARE SEVERAL CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.  FIRST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WX OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS...AND LASTLY THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...WITH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY EXPECTED TO SEE RH
VALUES DROP TO BELOW 15 PERCENT.  DECIDED THAT ENOUGH OF THE VALLEY
WOULD SEE CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS DEVELOP AND HAVE ISSUED A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY.

WV SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOWING A LARGE UPR LOW CENTERED
OVR SRN UT.  THIS UPR LOW WL MOVE SLOWLY TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS BY 00Z FRI.  THE OVERNIGHT IT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE CO AND NM BORDER...ENDING UP
BEING CENTERED ABOUT OVR RIO GRANDE COUNTY BY 12Z FRI.

CURRENTLY THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PCPN OVR THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED IN THE CENTRAL
MTNS. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS THRU
THE MORNING AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ERN
MTNS AND ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS MID LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. AS AN UPR LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF ROTATES AROUND TO UPR LOW INTO SERN CO THIS
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED OVR THE PLAINS. OVR THE
FAR SERN PLAINS THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE
NAM IS SHOWING CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1200 J/KG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH 0- 6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF 50-60KTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

RELATIVELY ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL LONG TERM ANTICIPATED AS
SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCE IMPACT SOUTHERN COLORADO
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDE POPS
...TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.

INITIALLY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
COLORADO/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AT 12Z FRIDAY SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO
CENTRAL COLORADO BY 12Z SATURDAY AND THEN INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY
12Z SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY 00Z MONDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW BREEZY...UNSETTLED AND BELOW SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES TO BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER ELEVATION RAIN
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NORTHERN LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. AT THIS TIME...NUMEROUS
HIGHER TERRAIN WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THEN...ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE CWFA WILL
ALLOW UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN COMBINATION WITH COOL
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER MANY SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN ADDITION...THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS
DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
FINALLY...BASICALLY BELOW SEASONAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND NEAR
SEASONAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTE OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

AT KCOS SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS.
MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW THESE LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND MOST OF THE
DAY.  SOME SHOWERS WL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE AREA LATER TODAY...WITH
SOME SNOW DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING. THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

KPUB IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT COULD BRIEFLY GO
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH SOME SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN THE AREA.
TONIGHT MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AREA.

KALS WILL HAVE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
TONIGHT CIGS WL LOWER WITH SOME SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY AND CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME MVFR BRIEFLY.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ059-062-063-076>079.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COZ058-
060-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ072-073-080-
082.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM MDT
SATURDAY FOR COZ074-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT



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