Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KPUB 300956
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
356 AM MDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU APR 30 2015

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION WITH QUIET
WEATHER EARLY THIS MORNING.  TEMPERATURES ARE MILD WITH MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS COLORADO.  THIS WILL SHIFT FLOW WESTERLY ALOFT AND SEND
A COLD FRONT INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE FOR THIS EVENING.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING UNDER SUNNY SKIES.  MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID
AFTERNOON.  INITIALLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT AS ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN DEVELOPING
WESTERLY FLOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
EASTWARD.  MODELS HINTING THAT AREAS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE WILL SEE
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
DUE TO MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A DECENT AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS EL PASO
COUNTY...NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING.  LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP THIS ACTIVITY BELOW
STRONG TO SEVERE THRESHOLDS...BUT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.  FURTHER SOUTH...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL LIKELY PREVENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM MAKING IT
TOO FAR EAST...AND SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF I-25.  MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOST OF THE PLAINS...WHILE AREAS OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE MAY HANG ON TO PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL ALSO REMAIN MILD WITH 40S TO 50S HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU APR 30 2015

...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.  UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE POISED TO BRING DAILY CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEN...EARLY NEXT WEEK...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A MAJOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA.

CURRENTLY...THE FRIDAY DISTURBANCE LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY DISTURBANCES.  THIS DAY PROBABLY HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THE SHEAR IS NOT
GREAT...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE DECENT CONVECTIVE ENERGY AVAILABLE
ALONG WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SYSTEMS LOOK A LITTLE WEAKER AT THIS POINT WITH LESS CHANCES
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS FOR MOST STORMS
WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.  HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STORMS ON
FRIDAY MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAILSTONES AN INCH OR MORE IN
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR MORE...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE OVER THE REGION AS A MAJOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.  ON MONDAY...ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FROM
THAT SEEN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GREATEST INCREASE IN ACTIVITY
FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE SEEN ON TUESDAY.  BOTH OF THESE DAYS...BUT
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...WILL SEE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...ALONG WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS...AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN.  AREA BURN SCARS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...IF THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS ARE CORRECT...MOST OF
THE EAST WILL BE DRY AND WINDY...WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.  THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  WITH GREENUP STARTING IN MANY AREAS...MORE
RAIN WOULD CERTAINLY BE OF GREAT BENEFIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT THU APR 30 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT
WILL NOT IMPACT THE TERMINAL.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AND MAY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL DURING THE 01-09Z/FRI TIME PERIOD.  LIGHTNING
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.  A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
PASSING ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING WITH A NORTHERN WIND SHIFT.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING.  A COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS
NORTHERLY AFTER SUNSET. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.