Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 220518
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1118 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2015

...SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION TOMORROW...WALDO ISSUES
WEDNESDAY??..

CURRENTLY...

AN ILL DEFINED PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
OF COLORADO RUNNING FROM ROUGHLY ST FRANCIS KS TO PUEBLO. A COOL
FRONT WAS LOCATED ON THE NE/SD BORDER AT 2 PM. LOCALLY...A FEW
SHOWERS AND TSRA WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A FEW
SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPING IN THE GREATER SPANISH PEAKS REGION. TEMPS
AT 2 PM WERE IN THE L70S MOST OF THE PLAINS WITH 60S VALLEYS. ABOUT
500-750 JOULES OF CAPE WAS NOTED ALONG THE RATON MESA AND EXTENDED
NWD UP IN THE PIKES PEAK REGION.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...WITH THE COOL
FRONT COMING DOWN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...BEST CONVERGENCE IN THE SHORT TERM IS STILL EXPECTED TO
OCCUR ALONG THE RATON MESA...AND THIS IS WERE THE BEST CHANCE OF
TSRA WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THAT SAID...CANT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OVER MOST AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOW
TEMPS WERE ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...

A FEW MORE ROBUST STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY DOWN ALONG
THE CO/NM BORDER AS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH
CAPES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER TOMORROW AND LLVL FORCING WILL BE
BETTER....STORM SHOULD NOT GET ALL THAT STRONG AS MID LVL RIDGING
WILL BE OVER THE REGION AND FLOW IN THE MID LVLS WILL BE QUITE
WEAK. OVERALL...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TOMORROW WILL BE
OVER THE GREATER TRINIDAD REGION AND THE PIKES PEAK REGION.

WE COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP OVER THE WALDO BURN SCAR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2015

SOME METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO LONGER TERM AS SOMEWHAT
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DEVELOP NEXT WEEK. MAIN METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES
CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURES AND POPS AND IMPACT PRECIPITATION
MAY HAVE ON THE WALDO CANYON AND OTHER RECENT BURN SCARS.

LATEST FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...
METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS AND PV ANALYSIS STILL INDICATE THAT
TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL BE NOTED
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. BRIEF UPPER RIDGING THEN RE-DEVELOPS OVER THE
CWFA FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE
IMPACTS THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THEN UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN COLORADO BY NEXT MONDAY
NIGHT/NEXT TUESDAY...POSSIBLY EARLIER.

IN ADDITION...LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE LOW THEN DEEPENING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE SURGE MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO BY LATER
FRIDAY WITH NEXT NORTHERLY SURGE PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...ANTICIPATE UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND IN COMBINATION WITH MAXIMUM
AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES NOT STRAYING MUCH FROM LATE APRIL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.  WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
NOTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY.

GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF STRONGER STORMS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.  FOCUS OF STRONGER STORM
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO RUN FROM EL PASO COUNTY INTO PROWERS COUNTY
FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS EVIDENCED BY PROJECTED
LOCALIZED CAPES/LIS AND0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF -5C/1000+ J/KG
AND 45 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND BURN SCAR THREAT CLOSELY
EACH DAY. IN ADDITION...ACCUMULATING HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW AT TIMES
ALSO EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

SWITCHING GEARS TO TEMPERATURES...NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NOTED OVER MANY LOCATIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TERMINALS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALL 3 TAF SITES WILL CARRY VCTS AS EARLY AS 21Z...WITH KCOS SEEING
THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY 03Z. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...KT


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