Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 281707
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1107 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS AND
ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

CURRENTLY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SUNRISE.  PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WHICH
WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES ARE COOL WITH MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE
AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER OKLAHOMA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE AREA.  IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
COLORADO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCES PASSES.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
POSSIBLY PEA SIZE HAIL.  ANY SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPPER
PEAKS WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOW ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE
REGION. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

...UNSETTLED SPRING WEATHER AHEAD...

MODEL SIMULATIONS KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY COULD BE THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS...WITH THE
FEWEST NUMBER OF STORMS...CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS.

THEN...FROM FRIDAY ONWARD...THE PATTERN LOOKS MORE ACTIVE WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...BRINGING
DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER A LARGER PART OF THE AREA
INCLUDING PARTS OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AT TIMES.

HARD TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY RIGHT NOW WHICH SHORTWAVES WILL BE
THE STRONGEST. RIGHT NOW...THE FRIDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY WAVES
LOOK STRONGER THAN THE SATURDAY WAVE.  BUT...AGAIN...THIS IS JUST
A GUESS...SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH LATER DATA.  IN ANY EVENT...THE
PATTERN LOOKS CONDUCIVE TO DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.  PRIMARY STORMS THREATS COULD BE ANYTHING FROM LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS...TO RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS...TO HAIL.
NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS APPEARS TO HAVE ANY COLD AIR...SO WOULD THINK
THAT MOST SNOWFALL WOULD BE CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 OR
EVEN 10000 FEET.  LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A FEW INCHES COULD
OCCUR ABOVE THESE ELEVATIONS WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.  DEPENDING ON
THE DAY...COULD EVEN DEAL WITH A BIT OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM TIME TO
TIME. SPRING HAS SPRUNG HERE IN THE SOUTHERN COLORADO ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH THERE COULD
BE A BKN060 CIG LAYER AT TIMES AT KCOS AND KPUB. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...KT


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