Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 201005
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
405 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEVERAL MINOR
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS
SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH ONE BAND
OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS AND ANOTHER BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AT THIS TIME.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LATEST MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING
PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN PLAINS WITH NONE OF THE MODELS INDICATING THE LIGHT BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM REMAINS THE HEAVIEST HANDED WITH REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION AND HAVE DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. MOST OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS AS WELL AS THE GFS AND EC INDICATE BEST COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING TO BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MTS...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION
AND SAN LUIS VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN MTS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES CONTINUES TO DIG
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND INTO WESTERN COLORADO. COULD SEE A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT HEAVY...THOUGH
CANT RULE OUT A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN UNDER A STRONGER CELL. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WARMING
ALOFT TO SUPPORT HIGHS GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE MAINLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO HELP KEEP LOWS UP A TAD
WITH MAINLY 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015

...MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND THUNDER ON THE PLAINS...

FAIRLY ACTIVE WEEK OF WX AHEAD...FAIRLY TYPICAL OF SPRING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS AS THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER FLAT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY...WE WILL STILL BE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...BUT A RIDGE WILL BE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN IT LOOKS LIKE ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER THE MTS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
FROM THE NW. SHOWERS AND A FEW TS SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY EWD BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW/ISOLD POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER
MILD AND COMFORTABLE...AROUND 70 FOR A HIGH OVR THE PLAINS.

WEDNESDAY...COULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS BRING THE DRY LINE INTO ERN CO...AS FAR WEST AS KLHX
DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS E OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE IN THE MID
40S...POSSIBLY UPPER 40S CLOSE TO THE KS BORDER. THIS WILL YIELD SB
CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL
ALSO BE 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR...SO CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE A TRANSIENT UPPER
RIDGE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OVER OUR AREA. HOWEVER...THE DRYLINE AND
A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF
A FEW STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND STORMS FROM THE DRYLINE EWD
COULD BE ON THE STRONG TO SVR SIDE.

THURSDAY...THE DRYLINE SHOULD SHIFT EWD TO THE KS BORDER...AND
POSSIBLY OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...IT WILL BEAR WATCHING SINCE
SVR PARAMETERS E OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR SVR
STORMS THAN THEY WERE ON WED. ODDS ARE MORE LIKELY THAT MOST OF OUR
AREA WILL BE DRY AND IT WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE AS SW WINDS PICK
UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE AROUND 70 DEGREES
OVER THE PLAINS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING AN UPPER LOW FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH SRN
CO IN A TRACK THAT TAKES IT EAST-NE THROUGH OUR AREA. SINCE WE WILL
LIKELY BE UNDER THE UPPER LOW...MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
IT WILL BE OVER NRN CO. BUT IT WILL STILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SCT-
NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE MTS ESPECIALLY...AND WRAP AROUND PRECIP MAY
AFFECT THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS FRI MORNING. COULD EVEN SEE SOME
NOCTURNAL STORMS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH.

SATURDAY ONWARD...WE TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE LOWLANDS DRY...WHILE THE
MTS CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NONE OF THESE
DISTURBANCES LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY
ACCUMS THAT COULD BE NOTEWORTHY. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015

ALS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WILL SEE
INCREASING SHOWERS AROUND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH LOWERING CIGS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION ENDING
AFT 00Z.

COS...MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12-16Z. SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO
STAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.

PUB....MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 12-16Z. SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO STAY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW



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