Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KPUB 200515
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1115 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAK OFF THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND
INTO THE ADJACENT INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. THESE HAVE BEEN PRETTY
LOCALIZED SO FAR. NEXT WAVE WILL COME IN AFTER MIDNIGHT ASSOC WITH
DISTURBANCE BACK ACROSS UT/WRN CO. 00Z NAM12 LOOKS CONVECTIVELY
CONTAMINATED...AND WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST
RAP13...HRRR...AND 18Z GFS. STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN EVEN
THESE MODELS...WITH RAP13 AND HRRR PREFERRING A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK...ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...SANGRES AND WETS AND
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. WHILE GFS...AND THE HEAVY HANDED NAM12
TAKE GREATEST QPF TOTALS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO...ACROSS
THE PIKES PEAK REGION LATE TONIGHT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK...AND WILL SEE WHAT 00Z GFS RUN GIVES BEFORE MAKING
DRASTIC CHANGES. OVERALL FORECAST TRENDS POPS UPWARDS INTO THE SCT
CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT...WITH POPS TRENDING DOWNWARD FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY MORNING. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED WELL EAST INTO EASTERN KS
THIS AFTN...AND STRONG N-NW WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM HAVE
BEGUN TO MELLOW AS A RESULT. BRISK WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
CONTINUE FROM APPROX LHX AND EASTWARD. UNDER INTERMITTENT CLOUD
COVER WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD BREAKS...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...NW FLOW ALOFT HAS SETTLED IN AND WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE UPPER WAVE IS NEARING THE
STATE...AND IS EXPECTED TO SPARK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE MTS AND NEARBY PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES...MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE
EAST...PROMOTING MORE CONVECTION OVER THE PALMER DVD AND RAMPART
RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WAS A BIT DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WAS IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS...SO INCREASED POPS IN THOSE LOCATIONS. TOMORROW AFTN
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOLLOWING A MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN. THE CHALLENGE TONIGHT
WILL BE MIN TEMPS. TEMPS ARE HOVERING NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...AND
WHETHER THEY STAY JUST ABOVE OR DIP BELOW THAT MARK WILL BE
DETERMINED BY CLOUD COVER. THE WINDS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO DIE
DOWN...SO SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW MORE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE ANY SORT OF
FREEZE HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME SINCE THE OFFICIAL START IS MAY
1...BUT SOME ATTENTION TO OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE IN ORDER FOR
TONIGHT. AS FOR TOMORROW...AFTN MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE ON PAR OR A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE RECORDED TODAY. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

...BUSY WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD...

WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE A BIT ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
FEW DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP AREAS OF PRECIP AND THUNDER OVER THE
REGION. ON FRIDAY...WE MAY SEE SOME ORGANIZED ROTATING CONVECTION
ON THE PLAINS.

MONDAY EVENING A DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY
ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER DURING THE EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...MIDLVL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NW OF THE FCST AREA. A WEAK
COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND
THIS MAY ENHANCE THE SHOWER THREAT OVER THE PLAINS TUES
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PLAINS/MTN INTERFACE AND ONCE AGAIN
ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER.

THIS FRONT IS LIKELY GOING TO GET HUNG UP ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER.
THIS WILL KEEP THE PLAINS IN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ON WED. ALTHOUGH
FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK ALOFT...WE SHOULD SEE ISOLD/SCTD
THUNDER ON THE PLAINS ONCE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MTNS.

THU AND FRI...

THESE TWO DAYS APPEAR TO BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE AS A WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES E-NE ACROSS THE SW CONUS AND OVER THE REGION LATER ON
FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS REINFORCING COOL
FRONTS WORK SOUTH ALONG THE PLAINS BRINGING UPSLOPE FLOW AND LLVL
MOISTURE. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SO STORMS
THU AFTERNOON MAY BE A BIT STRONGER...AND ON FRIDAY WE MAY SEE
ENOUGH PARAMETERS COME INTO PLAY THAT WE WILL HAVE A ORGANIZED SVR
WEATHER THREAT. OVERALL...THESE TWO DAYS SHOULD BE WET GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE FORCING OVER THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIKELY
BRING MORE HIGH MTN SNOWS...ESPECIALLY TO THE SAN JUANS AND
POSSIBLY SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...MODEST W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. GFS HAS A LEE
TROUGH ALONG THE BORDER WHILE EC STILL HAS WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OVER
THE FCST AREA. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE
WEEKEND BUT WILL NOT BE AS MANY AS ON THU AND FRI.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON THE PLAINS
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FIRE WX
ISSUES GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS AND HIGHER RH AIR OVER THE
DISTRICT. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

KALS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
LOWERING CIGS AT THE TERMINAL. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY...MORE
LIKELY TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL...AFTER 20Z.

KCOS...LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS LOWERING CIGS AROUND THE TERMINAL
WITH MODELS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN
11-13Z. EXPECT LOWERED CIGS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.

KPUB...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TERMINAL PRODUCING
LOWERED CIGS TONIGHT...WITH A SMALL WINDOW AROUND 11Z OF SHOWERS
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL. EXPECTED IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE
MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOZLEY



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.